"The 95th Annual Academy Awards" - My Predictions

 

Well, how the last year has gone by so quickly, and the whole Film Award season. It all comes to end tonight with the handing out of the most famous of all, the Academy Awards.

Over the years the Academy has garnered criticism that it does not respect more popularist films, box office favourites, and that they only reward art house movies, or films that the general public tend to stay away from. I think it is safe to say that this year changes that with nominations for box office smashes like "Top Gun:Maverick" esp in the Best Picture category.

But one other factor is that of late, the Oscars have certainly become memorable, but unfortunately for the Academy, for all the wrong reasons. Whether it be the wrong film named as Best Picture, or Presenters being physically attacked, the biggest talking point is anything other than what did win Best Picture.

At one point, it looked like the 95th Oscars was going to be one of those boring shows where you could safely predict who was going to win what. But after the Awards that have been handed out so far, and with some interesting curve balls, many of the Oscars could go in any number of different directions. And with the Best Picture list, and how the Academy score said category, it is not impossible for a crowd pleasing film like either "Elvis" or "Top Gun:Maverick" to walk away with that Award.

So, as usual I will be providing my list of the main categories, and I shall be listing what I think will win and what I would like to see win, and also some comments on the nominations

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

There are some excellent contenders in this category from the always excellent Brendan Gleeson in "The Banshees of Inisherin" to newcomers like Barry Keoghan, who likewise is excellent in the same film. Some home love saw him win the BAFTA, but I think we all know which way this Award is heading. I may not be a fan of the film, but I like so many of certain age, I grew up watching the brilliant performances of Ke Huy Quan, and given his backstory and how Hollywood turned its back on him, and he left acting for many years, it really would be a wonderful moment to see Ke top his Awards haul by bagging the Oscar.

WHAT WILL WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 BEST PERFORMANCE BY ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

As above, again there are some strong performances in this category, and any given year they would be a strong contender. But for me this is a two horse race. I do have misgivings about the nomination for Angela Bassett. Yes she does bring gravitas to her role in "Black Panther Wakanda Forever", in what is a pretty bland film, and is a highpoint of the movie, but Oscar worthy??? Some feel it is as much a career win for her body of work, as much as for the film. But then if that is the case, then surely Jamie Lee Curtis should win hands down. Again though not a fan of the film, she is quite brilliant as the tax inspector from hell. And likewise she has been in the industry for almost 50 years, so if we are awarding longevity.....

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Angela Bassett (Black Panther  Wakanda Forever)
 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

 

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Quite a mixed bag here. We can pretty much rule out "Tar" and "Triangle of Sadness" (over-rated) from this category. I would love to see Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner win for "The Fabelmans" as of the remaining three films, it is the one I enjoyed the most. But its between the Daniels and Academy favourite Martin McDonagh. I think there is every chance that the Daniels will win another category, so this will be a good opportunity to reward McDonagh, especially when he lost out for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri".

                                                               

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans)

 

 

                                                                                             

 

 

 

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

I do not think this is a particularly strong for Screenplay adaptations. No disrespect but if "Top Gun: Maverick" is nominated, then clearly there is something lacking.  

Given some of the other nominees, there can only be one winner and it is an easy one to call...

WHAT WILL WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Prior to last weekends SAG Awards, you could have pretty much said that it was a given that Cate Blanchett would be walking home with her third Oscar. But has Michelle Yeoh thrown a spanner in the works?? I only hope that all the ballots are in, because her Instagram comments could end up costing her if not.  

Personally I do not think that Blanchett deserves the Oscar, it is a great performance in an average film, but for me just to name one other nominee, Ana de Amas is much better in "Blonde". I am a huge admirer of Michelle Yeoh, and would be delighted to see her win the Oscar. This is a tough one to call.

 

 

 WHAT WILL WIN - Cate Blanchett (Tár)

 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

 

 

 

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I question most strongly some of the performances in this category. Was there a lack of outstanding leading male performances this year? One in particular, having recently seen the film, any reasonable actor could have played the part as well, there is virtually nothing within the performance that makes it stand out, and definitely not Oscar worthy. I know a few have championed Colin Farrell, in what is a reasonably good performance, but ultimately it's between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Both really do excel in their respectibe roles, and I would be delighted to see either win. But like with Ke Huy Quan, Hollywood loves a comeback story, and hopefully it will be enough to push Fraser to victory. Like many have said, the film as a whole is not the best, where as I loved "Elvis" but Fraser has that emotional range more so than Butler. As I have mentioned before, Fraser has done outstanding work in the past in great movies like "School Ties", "With Honors" and of course "Gods & Monsters", so his time is due.

WHAT WILL WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

BEST DIRECTOR

Like so many of this years categories, for me this is a two horse race, between the up and coming Daniels, and the old guard of Steven Spielberg. Much has been made that there are no female nominations this year, especially when there were so many to choose from. Personally I think it is crazy to nominate Ruben Östlund and Todd Field. I feel that neither deserved their nominations. One man who did deserve to be in this category was Edward Berger for his amazing work on the WWI epic "All Quiet On The Western Front".

But back to those who are nominated. One trend is to split Best Picture and Best Director, though onme would imagine that they go hand in hand, but for some reason this logic eludes the Academy. Because of the imaginitive style and scale of their film, I think the Award will go to EEAAO

 

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

BEST PICTURE

Since the Academy changed the number of films nominated in this category to a maximum of 10 it has created a situation where a left field film could easily win the top award. With a possible 10 nominees, like this year, it really splits the field, and with the way the scores are tabulated, anything is possible. 

For me you can rule out four of the nominated films straight away - they being "Tár", "Avatar: The Way of Water", "Triangle of Sadness" and "Women Talking".

All ten films are given a score, so whilst there is a lot of love for "Everything Everywhere All At Once", that may only score 10's from a die hard section of the Academy, and elsewhere scoring medium to low scores. Where as something like "All Quiet on The Western Front" or "The Fabelmans" or even "Top Gun: Maverick" might score consistent 7's and 8's from across the board. So this really is a tough one to call.

I am going to make an exception, and offer three nominees in this category....

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN (PURELY FOR FINANCIAL GAIN)

 

Yes I have had my obligatory bets on this years Oscars, and purely for profit I would be delighted to see this win Best Picture. 

Plus it would be the first film in Oscar history to win the same award twice, as "All Quiet On The Western Front" won Best Picture back in 1930

 

 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN

 

 

 

If a win is based on entertainment, then the film that I enjoyed the most would have to be Baz Luhrmann's "Elvis".  It brilliantly told the story of The King, with a great central performance from Austin Butler. 

I know that it will not happen, but I would be equally delighted if  "Top Gun: Maverick" took home the top prize. It was a great romp and good fun was had by all. 

If we are talking social message, then as above I would be pleased to see "All Quiet on The Western Front" win, though given it will win Best Foreign Language Film, I doubt it will do a "Parasite" and win both.

 

 

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

I know that this will be an unpopular choice, but then again so were my predictions for Sir Anthony Hopkins to beat Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category a few years ago, but I was proved right.

I just think that the old guard of the Academy, of which there are still high numbers will not vote for EEAAO in high numbers, so I am going to take a punt and go for the Spielberg film to take home the top prize.

So there you have it, signed, sealed and delivered. Delighted to see that Jimmy Kimmel is back as host. The list of presenters does not inspire but I am sure it will be a great show, and hopefully tomorrow we will all be talking about Who and What won, and not about some incident that occured during the show.

Happy 95th Oscars

The 90th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions

With just a couple of days to go, the excitement is building as we get ready to celebrate all that is great in the Film World, with the arrival of the 90th Annual Academy Awards.

What a year it has been, in some ways good, and in other ways...well...that's another story.
This past year cinematically has been much improved, and I have seen my Cinema attendance increase, surely a sign that things are getting better with the quality of films. There is quite a mixed bag of movies nominated this year. And as usual I am going to concentrate on the main 8 categories:-

Best Original Screenplay
Best Screenplay Based On Material Previously Produced or Published
Best Actor in A Supprting Role
Best Actress in A Supporting Role
Best Actor In a Leading Role
Best Actress In A Leading Role
Best Director
Best Picture

These 8 categories have garnered 44 nominations, and I have managed to see 40 of them, so not bad going.
As ever, my list will be of who I think will win, and who I would ideally like to see win.

Best Original Screenplay

This is easy as my Prediction and choice of Winner are the same. I think that Martin McDonagh will be victorious for his excellent screenplay for....









 Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Although there are a couple of films which could throw a spanner in the works, my choice and also the Winner I think will be James Ivory for his stunning adaptation of......






Best Actor in A Supporting Role

I think that Sam Rockwell will win for his brilliant portrayal of a racist cop.
I have no problem with Sam winning but I'd equally like to see his co-star Woody Harrelson win for playing the local Sheriff or even Richard Jenkins for his lovely performance in "The Shape of Water"



Best Actress in A Supporting Role

Again this is an easy one to call. Anyone who has ever watched "The West Wing" will marvel at Allison Janney's transformation into the foul mouthed Mum from hell in "I, Tonya" and this is why she will Win the Oscar, and rightly so








Best Actor in A Leading Role

If ever there was a certainty, then it has to be Gary Oldman for his tour de force performance as Winston Churchill in "Darkest Hour"





 

If Mr Oldman had not been nominated then I would like to think that the very excellent Timothee Charlamet would be in with a shout for his stunning performance in "Call Me By Your Name"






Best Actress in A Leading Role

As with all the Acting Awards this year, I think it is safe to say there will be very few surprises. In fact all are pretty much set in stone.
A firm for some time now, Frances McDormand will bag her second Oscar for playing the tough as nails, no nonsense Mom Mildred Hayes in "Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri"




Best Director

Don't get me started on the fact that Martin McDonagh has not been nominated in this category - TRAVESTY
If one was a conspiracist, then one might think he was left out to pave the way for the man who I think will win, and he is Guillermo Del Toro for "The Shape of Water"

I would certainly be delighted to see Christopher Nolan win for his great work on "Dunkirk", although not the best film of the film, but his triumph at what was put on screen deserves recognition




Best Picture

Despite that there has been a recent backlash against "Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri", I still think it will reign supreme at the Academy Awards and win Best Picture.

If there is going to be a repeat of what happened two years ago when "Spotlight" robbed "The Revenant" of a Best Picture Oscar, then the film that will steal "Three Billboards" thunder will be "The Shape of Water"

In an ideal world, I would love to see "Call Me By Your Name" win Best Picture. From start to finish it was a delight to watch. A wonderful screenplay from James Ivory, great performances ebut especially from Timothee Charlamet and Armie Hammer, and stunning cinematography




So there you have it. Just to recap, the nominees I think will win are:-

Best Original Screenplay - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published - Call Me By Your Name
Best Actor in A Supporting Role - Sam Rockwell
Best Actress in A Supporting Role - Allison Janney
Best Actor in A Leading Role - Gary Oldman
Best Actress in A Leading Role - Frances McDormand
Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro
Best Picture - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

And to just sidestep for a monent, if there is any justice then the Best Cinematography Oscar will go to Roger Deakins for his work on "Blade Runner 2049" not only as it was stunning but also for the fact that he is one of the very best in his field, and he is long overdue for Oscar recognition.

And good luck to Host Jimmy Kimmel, who did a first class job last year, and I for one am delighted to see him back.

Let's hope whoever presents Best Picture, will have the nerve to shout out if something is wrong !!! Lord preserve us should they give the Award to the wrong film.....