The 98th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions

 

The 98th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions

As is customary at this time of year, as Hollywood approaches the biggest night in the film calendar, and no I don't mean the opening of the latest Super Mario Movie, but the 98th Oscars, I am here with my thoughts on the proceedings.

Once again the event is marred with controversy, campaigns to smear, and generally leaving a bitter taste in the mouth. 

When I first watched the show live back in 1992, when "The Silence of the Lambs" won the big five, it was a spectacle and a delight to watch. Now it is anything but. I have always championed the Academy, even when I felt they were wrong.....taking too long to honour Casting and The Stunt Team, not allowing a Most Popular Best Picture Winner, and not incorporating the Achievement awards into the Show. But since last year, and for me one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history, I am kind of losing faith in the Academy, as in its members as much as the Organisation. Demi Moore should have won last year, Ralph Fiennes should have won last year. Conclave was the Best Picture of last year. And things look set to replicate themselves this year. 

I think this has been one of the weakest years for Best Picture nominees I can ever remember.

Whilst having upto a maximum of ten nominees can do wonders for a films Box office, with the preferential voting system adopted for Best Picture, it can lead to some surprising results. For me less than half the nominees deserve their nomination. And yes I can say that with conviction, as at the time of typing I have seen 44 of the 45 nominees in the main 8 categories, and that includes all 10 Best Picture nominees (Thanks Marcus!!)

In the past it has been said that awards are given for the wrong reason, maybe someone has been nominated many times before and not won, so it's their time. Or look at last year where many said they did not vote for Ralph Fiennes as he had won before (WRONG - he never won for "Schindler's List" but even if he had WTF difference does it make? If his is the best performance, then so be it. Ask Tom Hanks, or Spencer Tracy.That's how they both won back to back Lead Oscars.

I think there is a high risk of many awards being given out this year for the Wrong reasons. I will say no more.

As usual, I will list both what / who I want to Win, and what / who I think will win

Best Performance by An Actor in A Supporting Role

There are two previous Oscar winners in this category, for the same film. Neither deserve a win. More on that later.

There are two great character actors nominated for the first time, despite remarkable careers.

And there is the new James Bond, I mean Jacob Elordi....

Who I want to win......Stellan Skarsgard for "Sentimental Value"

Who I think will win......Sean Penn for "One Battle After Another"  (Please let me be wrong)

Best Performance by An Actress in A Supporting Role

Four first time nominees, and a previous nominee.  Teyana Taylor was the favourite at one point, not with me, and I do question one of the nominations but here we go...

Who I want to win.....Wunmi Mosaku for "Sinners"

Who I think will win.....Amy Madigan for "Weapons"

Best Original Screenplay

Again like so many categories this year, there are some very lacklustre nominees for very lacklustre films.  I have quite the soft spot for "Blue Moon", and I really enjoyed "Sentimental Value". With just one nomination in the big 8, "It Was Just An Accident" I thought was ok, and I did like "Sinners". Again even with "Marty Supreme", there are some flaws in the screenplay though it does rank higher for me than quite a few of the others.

What I want to win......"Marty Supreme"

What I think will win....."Sinners"

Best Screenplay Adaptation

This is one category that I am really struggling with in that most of the nominees are for films that I cannot stand or feel did very little to bring anything new to the plate eg "Frankenstein". 

I loathe "One Battle After Another" and "Bugonia", and I was very disappointed and bored with "Train Dreams". 

Who I want to win....."Hamnet"

Who I think will win....."One Battle After Another"

Best Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role

Oh boy.....where to begin???

Up until recent events, there was only one winner, and we all know that was Timothee Chalamet. But since the BAFTAs scandal and other events, it is safe to say that things could most definitely change.

Again like so many categories, there are some questionable nominees. There are at least two actors I would not have included.

This is probably the most open of all the big categories, and could go in any direction...

Who I Want to win......Timothee Chalamet. I know that it is highly unlikely but I would be equally delighted if Ethan Hawke were to win for his amazing performance in "Blue Moon"

Who I think will win......Michael B. Jordan

Best Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role

Thankfully this one is plain sailing. Although as above there are at least two actresses I would not have nominated.

I would say that this category is as close to set in stone as you can get, but then I thought that last year with Demi Moore

Who I Want to win.....Jessie Buckley

Who I Think Will Win......Jessie Buckley

Best Director

It is an interesting category. We could have history for the first female Director to win a second Oscar, We could have the first Black Director Oscar winner.

I feel I am on safe ground in ruling out both Josh Safdie and Joachim Trier for the Prize. I feel it is also highly unlikely that Chloe Zhao will get her second Oscar. I think it is between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler. Two great film makers who have made some great movies, PTA directed one of my favourite all time movies which is "Magnolia", but I would prefer him not to be honoured for "One Battle After Another". 

Who I Want to win.....Ryan Coogler for "Sinners"

Who I think will win......Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle After Another"

Best Picture

And so to the big one....ten films, all ten viewed and not one them got a maximum score of 10 when I reviewed them. In fact half of them barely made it to a score of 5.

As I say it has been a truly horrendous year for film. "Bugonia" and "One Battle After Another" are two  of the worst films that I have seen for some time, and I just do not get why there is all this love for them especially OBAA.

"Frankenstein" was ok. I was disappointed with both "Train Dreams" and "The Secret Agent", the latter especially with all the word of mouth saying what a masterpiece it was. Twoddle !!!

"Sinners" I enjoyed but Best Picture ????

"Hamnet" and "Marty Supreme" were both great films that I really enjoyed but I think they are films more to do with great performances than a knockout movie.

I thoroughly enjoyed "Sentimental Value" and I must say despite the controversy of its inclusion, if you ask which film really entertained me then I would say "F1".

Biggest snub in this category was why of why was "Blue Moon" not nominated??? It is a far more worthy nominee than at least half of the above mentioned movies.

What I want to see win.....Despite my opinion that none are worthy to carry the title "Best Picture Winner", I would have to say "Marty Supreme"

What I think will win....."One Battle After Another"  (we hang our heads in shame if it does!)

So there you have it. Conan O'Brien returns as host, he was loved last year, I thought he was ok. Though the Gov'nor will be on hand, yes Billy Crystal should be appearing, alongside Meg Ryan for a Rob Reiner tribute. There are rumours of a true mega star for a tribute to Robert Redford. It should be a memorable evening.....

2025 - "This Year In Film"

I was quite shocked to discover that I have not done one of these end of year reviews for some 5+ years. And given some of the movies that I have had to endure during 2025, I decided it was time to correct that.

Being a serious cinephile, I do go to the Cinema quite a bit. I managed again over 100 visits during 2025, with varying results.

I still firmly believe in Cinema, nothing that one can create at home, now matter how big a TV screen you have, can compare to the big screen experience. Like so many I have been horrified to read about the potential Netflix buyout of Warner Bros. which like so many are saying, will be the beginning of the end of Cinema.

But enough of doom and gloom, let us look at the past 12 months of films.

Like 2024, this year did not produce a 10/10 film. Quite something really. I cannot recall two back to back years where there was not a standout film. 

(I will just mention that I normally do not allow retro screenings into the scoring for a film year, but if one were to class "Kill Bill The Whole Bloody Affair" as a new film, given it has been re-edited, then this would certainly have a score of 10 out of 10)

When I look back at the films and their scores for 2025, I am surprised at how many have really low scores, like between 2 and 4. This is most unusual, and does not bode well. Some films that have received much hype and praise have fallen in that score range....more of that later.

Great Horror and horrific Horror....

2025 was siaid to be the year of the horror film - here are just four examples of how the Horror film can vary in degrees of success. "Silent Night Deadly Night" was passable though I have not seen the original version. I was a huge fan of "Black Phone", and was somewhat weary of a sequel, and it turns out I was right to be. For me everything they got so right in the first film, they completely ignored for the sequel. 

"Bring Her Back" is a rare film. Loved by so many, but not me. I loathe it with a passion. When watching the film I found myself getting angrier and angrier. There was so much wrong with the plot of the film. Things that should have never made it to the page let alone on screen. A huge mess of a movie.

Then the flip side is "The Monkey". I had hoped it would be good, especially as every time I saw the trailer, one particular moment had me laughing everytime I saw it, and yes it did deliver, and then some.Wickedly funny, wonderfully gruesome, and a real delight to watch.

Back on the Big Screen....

Like Horror, familiar faces returned to the Big Screen with varying results.

 

After a sigficant absense, the "Final Destination" franchise returned to the big screen, with a somewhat lacklustre effort. You kind of think that if this is the best that they can come up with after all this time, then was it worth doing??

As for "Superman", I could write pages and pages just on this one movie. Boy what a waste of a golden opportunity. Main issue was no chemistry between the two lead characters, and don't get me started on what Ma and Pa from Krypton were secretly up to. Another mess of a movie.

There was a final reckoning for the MI Team, and I think it is safe to say the whole franchise has finally run out of steam. The films seem to be fitting themselves around the stunts rather the stunts fitting within the film. It was ok, but if this is the last film, then it left one feeling rather underwhelmed.

That mad cap diarist Bridget Jones returned with a wonderful new movie. It was great to see a beloved character still able to work her magic thanks to the amazing Renee Zellweger, and also from up and coming Actor Leo Woodall.

Films that did not impress.....

Nosferatu....Wolf Man....Flight Risk....Hard Truths....The Brutalist....Heart Eyes....

One of Them Days....Mickey 17....Drop....Death of a Unicorn....The Ritual....Clown in a Cornfield...

 Weapons....Together....The Toxic Avenger

Films that were even worse (Absolute Worst of 2025)

One of the films in this category, believe it or not, is the favourite to win Best Picture at this years Oscars ceremony. Just shows how opinions can be divided. 

 

Here are the most tedious, absolute waste of time movies that I have seen during the past 12 months. For me they really are shockingly bad. My only consolation is that I will never have to sit through them again....one viewing was more than enough.

Biggest Surprise of the Year

I had heard the rumours that this film was going ahead. Then filming began, and then I saw the trailer. And for me it had disaster written all over it. With some reluctance and a great deal of trepidation, I went to see said movie.

I could not have been more wrong...and will gladly admit it. This film was one of the highlights of the year, coming from nowhere, with so few expectations.....and it was one of the most entertaining films of 2025. And it is......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

After years of playing the mature action hero in great movies like the "Taken" series, "The Grey" to name just a few, the last person you expect to take on the lead of Frank Drebin jr, especially taking over from the comedy legend of Leslie Nielson, would be Liam Neeson. You just would not put the two of them together....and that is why it DOES work, that and a wickedly funny script, coupled with great visual gags, that were what made "Naked Gun" so successful the first time round. I think it is a shame that there is little chance of a sequel, but sometimes it is best to leave well alone. A huge well done to all concerned with the making of this comedy great.

Films that I really enjoyed watching

Timothee Chalamet really excelled in "A Complete Unknown", there is little that this incredibly talented actor cannot do.

Action thrillers fared well with great movies like "Black Bag", which when I saw the trailer it was almost like it was tailor made for me, and excellent it was too.Likewise Rami Malek proved he can be an action lead in the equally entertaining "The Amateur".

The 'John Wick' universe provided its first spin-off with the wonderful actress Ana de Amas taking the lead in the action packed and heated film "Ballerina". I thoroughly enjoyed it. Alas the masses did not seem to agree.

Other movies that I really enjoyed include F1, The Life of Chuck, Downton Abbey The Grand Finale, Relay, Nuremberg and Wicked For Good (and this is despite not being a fan of "Wicked")

So.....although no one fim really stood out ("Kill Bill aside) to earn a score of 10, there were 3 films that came close with an impressive score of 9, and they are.....

As mentioned a phenomenal performance from Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan in the music biopic. It was a great shame that he did not win the Oscar, along with Ralph Fiennes. Both were far more deserving than the actual recipient.

"Tron Ares"...what a great movie. A wonderful marriage of visuals and sound. Seen on the IMAX it was the best looking film of the whole year.

And completing the trilogy is the biopic "I Swear", a truly brilliant, moving and uplifting film about a young man and his daily struggles living with tourettes syndrome.

Amazing performances across the board, and just a great example of fantastic storytelling.

 

 

So there you have it. 365 days of Cinema, which included some great retro screenings.

Jaws had its golden, The Goonies had its ruby (hard to believe), Se7en turned 30 as did Sense & Sensibility, Heat and GoldenEye also turned 30, The Shining hit the big 45, and there were many more.

At times the retro screenings prove more favourable than new releases, especially with some of the films released in 2025.

But here is hoping that the New Year will have some great, inventive and original films to enjoy

Love the movies....love Cinema