"The 91st Annual Academy Awards" - My Predictions

With less than a week to go, the 91st Annual Academy Awards will soon be upon us. And I think that it is fair to say that it has not been the easist of rides this year. We gained and lost a new category, we gained and lost a new Host, and we almost lost and then got back the televising of 4 Oscars, most importantly for Cinematography and Editing.

I personally think that the Award for Popular Film is an excellent idea, and I hope that it gets implemented next year. Some feel that it is not a good idea, becaiuse it means that a popular is less likely to win the Best Picture Oscar. Let's face it, the likelihood of the Oscar for Best Picture going to "Avengers Assemble: Infinity War" , "Furious 7", or "Avatar" are practically impossible, and frankly rightly so. But surely to win a Popular Oscar is better than no Oscar at all.

Anyway, I'm getting sidetracked. As usual I will compile my list of those whom I think will Win and those whom I would like to see Win.

As usual, my list will consist of the following:-

Best Original Screenplay
Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Best Director
Best Picture

Out of the 43 nominations that the varied films have garnered from these 8 categories, I have to date seen 32. So not as good as last year, and some of the blame for that can be laid at the door of Netflix, but don't get me started on that.

Best Original Screenplay

Although I have yet to see "Roma" I do know that there is this huge wave of affection towards the film, which is why I think it will win. Of the other films, I would love to see "Green Book" win.









Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

I do think that "BlackKklansman" will win, though not necessarily for the right reasons. Enough said. I would love the Screenplay for "Can You Ever Forgive Me" to win, it was delightful and a real breath of fresh air.








Best Actress in a Supporting Role 

I am really torn between these two actresses. Although I still think that Regina King will win, I cannot rule out a Win, and my preferred choice for Rachel Weisz for "The Favourite". In fact having now seen "Beale St", I think that Rachel Weisz definitely deserves to win, though I still think that King will prevail, but this is one category that I hope I get wrong.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

If there is such as a thing as a certainty with this years show, then this has to be the one.

Despite only having won the same award two years ago, Mahershala Ali looks set to double his Oscar tally, with his brilliant performance as Dr. Don Shirley in "Green Book". Not wanting to push home grown talent, but I would dearly love to see the amazing Richard E. Grant win for "Can You Ever Forgive Me?". I firmly believe that the race is just between these two.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

As a film fan I am really torn. I am a HUGE fan of both of these two amazing actresses. But if I had to pick, I would say that Glenn Close is long overdue for an Oscar. I loved Olivia Colman is "The Favourite". and I think that in any other year, she would be walking away with Oscar, but having been nominated 6 times before, and never having won, it is time for Glenn Close to be known as an Academy Winner....

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Like with Leading Actress, either of these two fine actors giving tuly stunning performances could win the Lead Actor Oscar, but given the number of Awards already filling his Cabinet, I feel that the Academy will reward Rami Malek for his great work as Freddie Mercury in "Bohemian Rhapsody". Thinking about it, we have not had an acting tie in a number of years..hint hint
 

Best Director

As I've mentioned about the love for "Roma", it extends to its very talented Director Alfonso Cuaron who I think will bag another Directing Oscar.
I would love to see Adam McKay win for "Vice" which I thought to be one of the best films that I have seen in years.

Best Picture

Despite that there have been a number of this years Best Picture nominees all pick up a major Best Picture award along the way to the Academy Awards, I think that "Roma" will be triumphant with the Big Prize.

I would be absolutely tickled pink if Adam McKay's "Vice" won, as the film and the performance by Christian Bale absolutely blew me away.





So just to recap.....here are my predixtions for what & who I think will win the Academy Award

Best Original Screenplay - "ROMA"
Best Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published - "BLACKKKLANSMAN"
Best Actress in a Supporting Role - "REGINA KING"
Best Actor in a Supporting Role - "MAHERSHALA ALI"
Best Actress in a Leading Role - "GLENN CLOSE"
Best Actor in a Leading Role - "RAMI MALEK"
Best Director - "ALFONSO CUARON"
Best Picture - "ROMA"

At this point I would normally wish the Host the very best of luck, but for the first time in 30 years we do not have an MC. Hope it's a great show, with a few surprises, and fingers crossed I win the odd bet or two.

"Boy Erased"

Religion and sexuality clash in this powerful new drama.

The film  opens as Jared arrives at Conversion Therapy. This is an organisation which looks to expel the gay tendancies that young people have, by a variety of methods, and to also illustrate that to be gay is a choice, not that they are born that way. As someone chooses to play or not play football, they can choose to be gay or straight.

As Jared spends more time in therapy we journey back with him, to some of the events from his past. And it is one of these events that sees Jared in therapy, though through no fault of his own, more to do with someone trying to save their own skin.

Russell Crowe plays Marshall Eamons, a Baptist Preacher, with a lovingly religious Wife, Nicole Kidman, and their young Son Jared, played by Lucas Hedges.
From these journies to the past, we can see why Jared was keen to keep his sexuality a secret from his parents, and when all comes out, it is decided that it would be best for him to attend Gay Conversion Therapy.
Running the centre is Victor Sykes, who firmly believes that he can convert the young. Nothing can be discussed outside the centre as to what goes on inside. One of the first things that Sykes tells Jared is that many of his family members will have traits that have influenced his gay choice.
As time goes on, Jared starts to question the benefit of being in therapy. His Father is clearly determined to have his Son cleansed of this unholy choice he has made. But Mother Nancy is faced with a dilemma of apeasing her husband, and caring for her Son. It all comes to a head in a particularly powerrful and distressing scene.

It is hard to believe that in the 21st Century that these kind of places still exist, but sadly they do. There were times when I was watching the film that I got really angry. The above mentioned distressing scene really made my blood boil. I felt like I wanted to reach into the screen and help out Jared. I felt so useless.

Yes there is a happy ending, and its not really a spoiler, as the screenplay is based on the real life events of Garrard Conley. It makes for compelling and at times uncomfortable viewing.
All the cast are excellent, but especially Lucas Hedges. Like Timothee Chalamet, he has become one of the bright new stars, turning out one great performance after another, and this really is exemplary.

One thing is for sure, the film will not be easily erased from your memory......9 out of 10

"The Mule"

Has it really been six years since Clint Eastwood last appeared on screen in 2012's "Trouble Witth The Curve"???
And even more remarkable, it has been 10 years since Clint appeared in "Gran Torino". He did famously announce that he was going to stay behind the camera several years ago, and has made some good films since, most notably "American Sniper" and "Sully".

For "The Mule" Clint has once again returned to acting taking the lead role as 'Earl' a 90 year old who loves growing flowers, and has fallen on hard times, and is presented with a unique way to make some easy money.

Early on we find out that whilst Earl has a great love for his prize winning flowers, he has rather neglected his Family. Whether it is spending days away from home whilst travelling or tending to his blooms, they feel they have been sidelined for his beloved flowers. He even fails to make it to his Daughter's wedding. Despite the great animosity this causes, his Grand-Daughter still loves him, and when it is her turn to get married some years later, Earl is keen to help out financially. Unfortunately for him, in those passing years, the internet has become the norm, and buying flowers from a person is seen as old hat, and Earl finds himself out of business, and at risk of losing his home. A chance encounter at a family party puts Earl in contact with some Mexicans looking for a courier. He turns up, his pick-up is loaded with "produce", he takes it to a set location, he waits around for a while, returns to his vehicle where the merchandise is gone, and he is a few thousand dollars better off. Earl is an ideal choice, as he has a clean driving license, and never even had a speeding ticket.
For Earl it is a one off, a means to an end. But it doesn't stop there, as more money is needed. The shipments get more regular, and get bigger in size.
The only thing for Earl is that he is a Courier working on behalf of a major Mexican drug Cartel, and he is transporting some of the finest cocaine on the market.But given his unique qualities, he becomes their most successful courier.

There are scenes where Earl is taken to Mexico to meet the Drug Lord who runs the Cartel. Would this really have happened? There is no indication that they ever met, as far as I am aware. This whole segment seems a little unnecessary, even more so given that ladies that are paraded for Earl's pleasure. I mean the man is 90. But he gets to meet the Boss, played by Andy Garcia, now he is the nice Drug Lord. But soon his depuities don't like his nicey nicey methods, so take matters in their own hands, and thus don't tolerate Earl's easy going methods, and put it in no uncertain terms what will happen to him unless he tows the line.
Will the Mexicans bring Earl's transporting to an abrupt end, or will the Authorities track down the mysterious Courier known as 'Tata'?

There is something deeply reassuring about seeing Clint Eastwood on the big screen. It has been far too long since he has been in front of the camera. But he is just so completely believable in the role, as we see a man, who has a passion for his flowers, but also is aware that it has cost him dearly, in the animosity from his family. A man who has realised too late where his priorities should have been.
There is good support from Dianne Wiest and Bradley Cooper. Unlike far too many of the new releases these days, the film is beautifully photographed and edited perfectly, nice long shots, no cut aways every half a second. It is a film made by a master craftsman.

Nice to have you back Clint, you've made my day.....8 out of 10