"The 89th Annual Academy Awards" - My Predictions

It has been another interesting year in Hollywood, and indeed the World. As much as the Winners like to thank their Agent, Lawyer, Loved Ones etc, I have a feeling that one particular topic will feature heavily in alot of tonight's acceptance speeches, I am sure involving "the orange one".

But back to the movies, out of the 8 main categories,

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Best Original Screenplay

Best Screenplay Adaptation Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The films featured in these catergories have garnered 44 nominations, and of those I have managed to see 41, probably my most successful Oscars to date, and so I feel it gives me a good overview of the best of 2016

As always I will show both what / who I think will win and what / who I would like to see win The Oscar

Best Original Screenplay

As much as it pains me, I do think that Kenneth Lonergan will win for his screenplay for "Manchester By The Sea", a totally forgettable film.

I'd love to see "Hell Or High Water" win

Best Screenplay Adaptation Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Of the two writing categories, this is definitely the stronger. There are some odd choices for original, but Screenplay Adaptation has a far better class of writing.

It would be tough to pick between "Lion" and "Moonlight" for this Award, but I think that Barry Jenkins will win, and I'd be equally delighted to see him win for his writing on "Moonlight"






Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Out of the four Acting categories, this is the strongest, with amazing performances from all five nominees, and in any given year, any of them could and should be a winner.
But for me it's no contest, Viola Davis all the way for her amazing performance in "Fences"



Best Actor in a Supporting Role

There was always the argument that Sir Anthony Hopkins should have been in the Supporting Actor category for "Silence of the Lambs" and although it is a very good performance, Mahershala Ali is in the film all too briefly. But then again Dame Judi Dench did win Best Supporting Actress for just 8 minutes on screen, so what do I know???
But I have to admit that when he is on screen it is an excellent performance.
It would be nice for Dev Patel to put at the side of his BAFTA an Oscar for his great work on "Lion"


 Best Actress in a Leading Role

A short while ago, I would have said that Natalie Portman would have been able to make space for a second Oscar, but now I think it will go to Emma Stone for "La La Land". Is it deserved?  Well for me that's debatable.
I would love to see Meryl Streep win for "Florence Foster Jenkins", for two reasons. One - She is "one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood" according to one 'knowlegable' source, and two - It would give her a good opportunity to be the most Oscar winning actress of all-time.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

I am going to stick my neck out a bit here, and go against the tide of love for Casey Affleck, and with good reason...




ITS NOT A GREAT PERFORMANCE !!!!!!!!!!!
IT DOES NOT DESERVE AN OSCAR !!!!!!
It's ok, and there are times when he does shine, but if you want an actor who is consistently excellent throughout the whole film then look no further than Denzel Washington in "Fences". I have been doing my homework on this one. Out of the 23 Screen Actor Guild Awards that have taken place, only on four occasions has the SAG award been given to a different Actor to that who was awarded The Oscar, and the last time was 13 years ago. So here is hoping that Mr. Washington gets an Oscar to go with SAG Award for "Fences".
And I would like to see Andrew Garfield win for "Hacksaw Ridge", he is a truly talented young actor.


Best Director

Given the sensation that "La La Land" has become, and Lord knows why, I feel that the Academy are going to want to reward the man responsible - Damien Chazelle.

It has to be said that he is hot property at the moment, what with "La La Land", and also his film "Whiplash" won three Oscars only two years ago.

I'd love to see Barry Jenkins win for his Directing work on "Moonlight", and I have to say that I'd be pleased to see Mel Gibson win for "Hacksaw Ridge", especially the second half of the movie, but this would have to rank as a real outsider.

Best Picture

Before I make my prediction, a few notes first. The smart money does have to be on "La La Land", and certainly the Bookies and no doubt most of the Critics have it as good as a certainty.
Like Best Actress in a Supporting Role, it has been quite a strong year for Best Picture, although an unusual choice, it was nice to see "Arrival" get nominated, keeping the flame alive for sci-fi fans.
As much as I loved the movie, I also think that "Hell Or High Water" was an unusual inclusion too.
I've gone on record already about how I feel about "Manchester By The Sea" and "La La Land", both are good films, but they are instantly forgettable. I had no burning desire for a second viewing, but I would watch "Lion", "Hell Or High Water", "Fences", "Moonlight", "Hidden Figures" or "Hacksaw Ridge" again.
Certainly financially, if memory serves then so far, "Hidden Figures" has been one of the biggest successes of the films nominated for Best Picture.

I remember being sat here at this time last year, merrily predicting that "The Revenant" would win Best Picture. I think the fact that there are now almost double the number of nominees, it has had an impact, meaning the votes are more spread out, so a lesser film could win. If something like "Spotlight" can beat "The Revenant" to Best Picture, then quite frankly anything is possible. I was positively appalled at the Best Picture choice last year, and would love to see a similar upset this year........here goes.......

Knowing what I know of the Academy, and how their members are made up, it pains me to say it, but I think that "La La Land" will be crowned Best Picture. Please let's have a repeat of last year, and let me be wrong. I would be delighted to see either "Lion" or "Moonlight" win, in fact anything other than "La La Land" or "Manchester by the Sea".

We all remember that moment 11 years ago, when a little film about gay cowboys was a dead cert for Best Picture.

Then what happened, "Crash" came along and took the top prize. It was felt that alot of the Academy were not ready to endorse a gay themed movie.
Even the Director of "Crash", Paul Haggis, has said that "Crash" was not the Best film of that year, and he made the bloody film !!!
Does that stand against "Moonliught"?  Or have opinions changed enough in the last ten years or so that we may see a big upset for the top prize again?  Let's hope so




So there you have it, my thoughts and predictions for the 89th Annual Academy Awards, so just to recap who I think will win:-

Best Original Screenplay - "Manchester By The Sea"
Best Adapted Screenplay - "Moonlight"
Best Supporting Actress - Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali
Best Lead Actress - Emma Stone
Best Lead Actor - Denzel Washington
Best Director - Damien Chazelle
Best Picture - "La La Land"

And finally, just for the record, I have no idea who Jimmy Kimmel is, but he is hosting this year, and I wish him the best of luck.....

Here's to The Oscars