"The 89th Annual Academy Awards" - My Predictions

It has been another interesting year in Hollywood, and indeed the World. As much as the Winners like to thank their Agent, Lawyer, Loved Ones etc, I have a feeling that one particular topic will feature heavily in alot of tonight's acceptance speeches, I am sure involving "the orange one".

But back to the movies, out of the 8 main categories,

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Best Original Screenplay

Best Screenplay Adaptation Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

The films featured in these catergories have garnered 44 nominations, and of those I have managed to see 41, probably my most successful Oscars to date, and so I feel it gives me a good overview of the best of 2016

As always I will show both what / who I think will win and what / who I would like to see win The Oscar

Best Original Screenplay

As much as it pains me, I do think that Kenneth Lonergan will win for his screenplay for "Manchester By The Sea", a totally forgettable film.

I'd love to see "Hell Or High Water" win

Best Screenplay Adaptation Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Of the two writing categories, this is definitely the stronger. There are some odd choices for original, but Screenplay Adaptation has a far better class of writing.

It would be tough to pick between "Lion" and "Moonlight" for this Award, but I think that Barry Jenkins will win, and I'd be equally delighted to see him win for his writing on "Moonlight"






Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Out of the four Acting categories, this is the strongest, with amazing performances from all five nominees, and in any given year, any of them could and should be a winner.
But for me it's no contest, Viola Davis all the way for her amazing performance in "Fences"



Best Actor in a Supporting Role

There was always the argument that Sir Anthony Hopkins should have been in the Supporting Actor category for "Silence of the Lambs" and although it is a very good performance, Mahershala Ali is in the film all too briefly. But then again Dame Judi Dench did win Best Supporting Actress for just 8 minutes on screen, so what do I know???
But I have to admit that when he is on screen it is an excellent performance.
It would be nice for Dev Patel to put at the side of his BAFTA an Oscar for his great work on "Lion"


 Best Actress in a Leading Role

A short while ago, I would have said that Natalie Portman would have been able to make space for a second Oscar, but now I think it will go to Emma Stone for "La La Land". Is it deserved?  Well for me that's debatable.
I would love to see Meryl Streep win for "Florence Foster Jenkins", for two reasons. One - She is "one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood" according to one 'knowlegable' source, and two - It would give her a good opportunity to be the most Oscar winning actress of all-time.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

I am going to stick my neck out a bit here, and go against the tide of love for Casey Affleck, and with good reason...




ITS NOT A GREAT PERFORMANCE !!!!!!!!!!!
IT DOES NOT DESERVE AN OSCAR !!!!!!
It's ok, and there are times when he does shine, but if you want an actor who is consistently excellent throughout the whole film then look no further than Denzel Washington in "Fences". I have been doing my homework on this one. Out of the 23 Screen Actor Guild Awards that have taken place, only on four occasions has the SAG award been given to a different Actor to that who was awarded The Oscar, and the last time was 13 years ago. So here is hoping that Mr. Washington gets an Oscar to go with SAG Award for "Fences".
And I would like to see Andrew Garfield win for "Hacksaw Ridge", he is a truly talented young actor.


Best Director

Given the sensation that "La La Land" has become, and Lord knows why, I feel that the Academy are going to want to reward the man responsible - Damien Chazelle.

It has to be said that he is hot property at the moment, what with "La La Land", and also his film "Whiplash" won three Oscars only two years ago.

I'd love to see Barry Jenkins win for his Directing work on "Moonlight", and I have to say that I'd be pleased to see Mel Gibson win for "Hacksaw Ridge", especially the second half of the movie, but this would have to rank as a real outsider.

Best Picture

Before I make my prediction, a few notes first. The smart money does have to be on "La La Land", and certainly the Bookies and no doubt most of the Critics have it as good as a certainty.
Like Best Actress in a Supporting Role, it has been quite a strong year for Best Picture, although an unusual choice, it was nice to see "Arrival" get nominated, keeping the flame alive for sci-fi fans.
As much as I loved the movie, I also think that "Hell Or High Water" was an unusual inclusion too.
I've gone on record already about how I feel about "Manchester By The Sea" and "La La Land", both are good films, but they are instantly forgettable. I had no burning desire for a second viewing, but I would watch "Lion", "Hell Or High Water", "Fences", "Moonlight", "Hidden Figures" or "Hacksaw Ridge" again.
Certainly financially, if memory serves then so far, "Hidden Figures" has been one of the biggest successes of the films nominated for Best Picture.

I remember being sat here at this time last year, merrily predicting that "The Revenant" would win Best Picture. I think the fact that there are now almost double the number of nominees, it has had an impact, meaning the votes are more spread out, so a lesser film could win. If something like "Spotlight" can beat "The Revenant" to Best Picture, then quite frankly anything is possible. I was positively appalled at the Best Picture choice last year, and would love to see a similar upset this year........here goes.......

Knowing what I know of the Academy, and how their members are made up, it pains me to say it, but I think that "La La Land" will be crowned Best Picture. Please let's have a repeat of last year, and let me be wrong. I would be delighted to see either "Lion" or "Moonlight" win, in fact anything other than "La La Land" or "Manchester by the Sea".

We all remember that moment 11 years ago, when a little film about gay cowboys was a dead cert for Best Picture.

Then what happened, "Crash" came along and took the top prize. It was felt that alot of the Academy were not ready to endorse a gay themed movie.
Even the Director of "Crash", Paul Haggis, has said that "Crash" was not the Best film of that year, and he made the bloody film !!!
Does that stand against "Moonliught"?  Or have opinions changed enough in the last ten years or so that we may see a big upset for the top prize again?  Let's hope so




So there you have it, my thoughts and predictions for the 89th Annual Academy Awards, so just to recap who I think will win:-

Best Original Screenplay - "Manchester By The Sea"
Best Adapted Screenplay - "Moonlight"
Best Supporting Actress - Viola Davis
Best Supporting Actor - Mahershala Ali
Best Lead Actress - Emma Stone
Best Lead Actor - Denzel Washington
Best Director - Damien Chazelle
Best Picture - "La La Land"

And finally, just for the record, I have no idea who Jimmy Kimmel is, but he is hosting this year, and I wish him the best of luck.....

Here's to The Oscars

Oscar Nominations - My Thoughts

It will soon be time for me to do my annual predictions for the Academy Awards.

This year I thought I would add some opinions on this years nominations, who should be included, who has been snubbed, and who should not even be mentioned.....

I have to say that it is a very strong year, in just about all the categories.
However, I'm going to get the big issue out of the way first.

Why all the love for "La La Land"? It is a good film, enjoyable, but here's the thing, it's forgettable. Maybe its these austere times that we live in, and people just want a film that makes them feel happy, but is that enough of a reason for it to be an Oscar Winning Best Picture? Most definitely not. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against musicals, and I also am a fan of Damien Chazelle's previous film "Whiplash", which was for me the best film of 2015.
It is nowhere near as memorable as say "Moonlight" or "Lion", or even "Hacksaw Ridge", all three of these films are worthy nominees, and I'd be happy to see any of these three take the top prize.
I would even question whether "Arrival" is worthy to be included in the nine films up for Best Picture, though it is nice to see the sci-fi genre get a look in.

Best Director Category is all fine and dandy.

Best Actor in a Leading Role is another kettle of fish!!!!!
With there being five actors in contention, 60% of them should NOT have been nominated.
Like my inability to understand all this love for "La La Land", likewise I wish someone would explain to me why they feel that Casey Affleck is worthy of so many Best Actor Awards. HE ISN'T !!!!
It's an ok performance, but like the film, it is forgettable. There are a few scenes where he does stand out, but he is not consistantly excellent all the way through the film, unlike say Denzel Washington in "Fences". Andrew Garfield is equally impressive in "Hacksaw Ridge" but I'd love to know how on Earth Viggo Mortensen got a nomination for "Captain Fantastic"???? And although it's back to "La La Land" the same could be said for Ryan Gosling.

For the most part I have no quibbles with Best Actress in a Leading Role.

Regarding Best Actor in a Supporting Role, I know there is a lot of love for Mahershala Ali for his peformance in "Moonlight", but I think any of the three gentlemen who played the lead Character could be equally nominated. It could so easily have been four Supporting Actor nominations from just one film.
Michael Shannon is a bizarre choice, but then again I would have been making a similar comment if his "Nocturnal Animals" and Golden Globe winning Co-star, Aaron Taylor Johnson was also nominated.

The only problem with Best Supporting Actress is how to seperate five excellent performances.

I know that some will say I'm biased given how much of a fan I am of this film-maker but I think it is a great shame that Clint Eastwood's "Sully" got so overlooked.
I must say that I also expected Martin Scorsese's "Silence" to get more than its single nomination.

So there you go, just a few days to go to Oscars 89

"Moonlight" - Preview Screening (Oscars 2017)

Contrary to what some say, there are many perks to having a Cineworld Unlimted Card, including being able to prebook tickets, but the main one is to be lucky enough to attend preview screenings, in this instance we have another of this years Oscar Best Picture nominees, in the shape of "Moonlight". I was fortunate to be able to see it almost two weeks ahead of its UK release.

I only saw the trailer the weekend before, whilst watching "Jackie". I knew virtually nothing about the film apart from it chronicles the life of a young African American.
Chiron is quiet, keeps himself to himself, does not look for trouble, but usually it will have a way of finding him, in one of several ways. Chiron's young adulthood is told over three stages, the first as a young boy aged nine, then as a teenager, and finally as a young man in his 20's.
He has much to contend with, a drug taking Mother, the lads at School who belittle and bully him, and a love that he must keep secret.
The story is brilliantly told, as we are introduced to the World that Chiron lives in. On one particular bad day he meets Juan, a local drug dealer (though at the time Chiron does not know this) and his Girlfriend Teresa. They become almost like surrogate parents, offering him a bed to sleep in if things get too rough at home.
It can make one quite angry watching this story in that this young lad just goes along every day, minding his own business, trying to do well at school, and he never really stands a chance.

Aside from Juan & Teresa, he does have one close friend, Kevin. But the feelings that Chiron has for Kevin are more than those of a friend. There are so many outstanding moments in the film, one where the young 9 year old asks Juan about what it means to be gay, and also a truly beautiful moment where Chiron and Kevin become more than friends. The acting in these two scenes is especially brilliant, and a credit to all of those involved.

Being African American is not easy given all that has happened in the US these last couple of years, but being gay as well, makes it a tough life to live. Thats why the older Chiron is so guarded, and the masculine man that he has toughened himself to be after the events of his earlier life.
It makes for a totally compelling film, with amazing performances. Much has been mentioned of Mahershala Ali as Juan, but for me equally so, the three actors who portay Chiron are all exemplary. The three of them could also be nominated for Best Supporting Actor. And rightly joining Ali is our very own Naomie Harris as Chiron's Mum, in a truly great performance.

Barry Jenkins, as Writer & Director has created a truly memorable masterpiece. Several years ago "Brokeback Mountain" was almost certain to win Best Picture. Let us hope that history does not repeat itself, as this would be a worthy addition to the list of Best Picture winners.

Another worthy entry as an Oscar Best Picture nominee.......9 out of 10