The 98th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions
As is customary at this time of year, as Hollywood approaches the biggest night in the film calendar, and no I don't mean the opening of the latest Super Mario Movie, but the 98th Oscars, I am here with my thoughts on the proceedings.
Once again the event is marred with controversy, campaigns to smear, and generally leaving a bitter taste in the mouth.
When I first watched the show live back in 1992, when "The Silence of the Lambs" won the big five, it was a spectacle and a delight to watch. Now it is anything but. I have always championed the Academy, even when I felt they were wrong.....taking too long to honour Casting and The Stunt Team, not allowing a Most Popular Best Picture Winner, and not incorporating the Achievement awards into the Show. But since last year, and for me one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history, I am kind of losing faith in the Academy, as in its members as much as the Organisation. Demi Moore should have won last year, Ralph Fiennes should have won last year. Conclave was the Best Picture of last year. And things look set to replicate themselves this year.
I think this has been one of the weakest years for Best Picture nominees I can ever remember.
Whilst having upto a maximum of ten nominees can do wonders for a films Box office, with the preferential voting system adopted for Best Picture, it can lead to some surprising results. For me less than half the nominees deserve their nomination. And yes I can say that with conviction, as at the time of typing I have seen 44 of the 45 nominees in the main 8 categories, and that includes all 10 Best Picture nominees (Thanks Marcus!!)
In the past it has been said that awards are given for the wrong reason, maybe someone has been nominated many times before and not won, so it's their time. Or look at last year where many said they did not vote for Ralph Fiennes as he had won before (WRONG - he never won for "Schindler's List" but even if he had WTF difference does it make? If his is the best performance, then so be it. Ask Tom Hanks, or Spencer Tracy.That's how they both won back to back Lead Oscars.
I think there is a high risk of many awards being given out this year for the Wrong reasons. I will say no more.
As usual, I will list both what / who I want to Win, and what / who I think will win
Best Performance by An Actor in A Supporting Role
There are two previous Oscar winners in this category, for the same film. Neither deserve a win. More on that later.
There are two great character actors nominated for the first time, despite remarkable careers.
And there is the new James Bond, I mean Jacob Elordi....
Who I want to win......Stellan Skarsgard for "Sentimental Value"
Who I think will win......Sean Penn for "One Battle After Another" (Please let me be wrong)
Best Performance by An Actress in A Supporting Role
Four first time nominees, and a previous nominee. Teyana Taylor was the favourite at one point, not with me, and I do question one of the nominations but here we go...
Who I want to win.....Wunmi Mosaku for "Sinners"
Who I think will win.....Amy Madigan for "Weapons"
Best Original Screenplay
Again like so many categories this year, there are some very lacklustre nominees for very lacklustre films. I have quite the soft spot for "Blue Moon", and I really enjoyed "Sentimental Value". With just one nomination in the big 8, "It Was Just An Accident" I thought was ok, and I did like "Sinners". Again even with "Marty Supreme", there are some flaws in the screenplay though it does rank higher for me than quite a few of the others.
What I want to win......"Marty Supreme"
What I think will win....."Sinners"
Best Screenplay Adaptation
This is one category that I am really struggling with in that most of the nominees are for films that I cannot stand or feel did very little to bring anything new to the plate eg "Frankenstein".
I loathe "One Battle After Another" and "Bugonia", and I was very disappointed and bored with "Train Dreams".
Who I want to win....."Hamnet"
Who I think will win....."One Battle After Another"
Best Performance By An Actor In A Leading Role
Oh boy.....where to begin???
Up until recent events, there was only one winner, and we all know that was Timothee Chalamet. But since the BAFTAs scandal and other events, it is safe to say that things could most definitely change.
Again like so many categories, there are some questionable nominees. There are at least two actors I would not have included.
This is probably the most open of all the big categories, and could go in any direction...
Who I Want to win......Timothee Chalamet. I know that it is highly unlikely but I would be equally delighted if Ethan Hawke were to win for his amazing performance in "Blue Moon"
Who I think will win......Michael B. Jordan
Best Performance By An Actress In A Leading Role
Thankfully this one is plain sailing. Although as above there are at least two actresses I would not have nominated.
I would say that this category is as close to set in stone as you can get, but then I thought that last year with Demi Moore
Who I Want to win.....Jessie Buckley
Who I Think Will Win......Jessie Buckley
Best Director
It is an interesting category. We could have history for the first female Director to win a second Oscar, We could have the first Black Director Oscar winner.
I feel I am on safe ground in ruling out both Josh Safdie and Joachim Trier for the Prize. I feel it is also highly unlikely that Chloe Zhao will get her second Oscar. I think it is between Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler. Two great film makers who have made some great movies, PTA directed one of my favourite all time movies which is "Magnolia", but I would prefer him not to be honoured for "One Battle After Another".
Who I Want to win.....Ryan Coogler for "Sinners"
Who I think will win......Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle After Another"
Best Picture
And so to the big one....ten films, all ten viewed and not one them got a maximum score of 10 when I reviewed them. In fact half of them barely made it to a score of 5.
As I say it has been a truly horrendous year for film. "Bugonia" and "One Battle After Another" are two of the worst films that I have seen for some time, and I just do not get why there is all this love for them especially OBAA.
"Frankenstein" was ok. I was disappointed with both "Train Dreams" and "The Secret Agent", the latter especially with all the word of mouth saying what a masterpiece it was. Twoddle !!!
"Sinners" I enjoyed but Best Picture ????
"Hamnet" and "Marty Supreme" were both great films that I really enjoyed but I think they are films more to do with great performances than a knockout movie.
I thoroughly enjoyed "Sentimental Value" and I must say despite the controversy of its inclusion, if you ask which film really entertained me then I would say "F1".
Biggest snub in this category was why of why was "Blue Moon" not nominated??? It is a far more worthy nominee than at least half of the above mentioned movies.
What I want to see win.....Despite my opinion that none are worthy to carry the title "Best Picture Winner", I would have to say "Marty Supreme"
What I think will win....."One Battle After Another" (we hang our heads in shame if it does!)
So there you have it. Conan O'Brien returns as host, he was loved last year, I thought he was ok. Though the Gov'nor will be on hand, yes Billy Crystal should be appearing, alongside Meg Ryan for a Rob Reiner tribute. There are rumours of a true mega star for a tribute to Robert Redford. It should be a memorable evening.....
