One thing is clear, a huge budget does not guarantee to have cinema seats filled time and time again. And something I have said for a while, is that a good proportion of the cinema going public are getting weary of Super-hero movies. At one stage, like a Bond film or a Tarantino film, it was event cinema, but since the floodgates opened, and we seem to have a new film pretty much every other month, it has become the norm, and we yearn for originality.
As always, I shall be looking at the main categories, and naming what I would like to see win and what I think shall win. Hopefully in some of the categories they will be the same.
And for the first time in recent memory, ahead of the Oscars ceremony, I have seen all 45 nominations in the main 8 categories. So here, we go....
Best Actor in A Supporting Role
I am really torn on this category. I know that I am in the minority in that I was not blown away by "Oppenheimer". But one thing that did strike me was the remarkable performance from Robert Downey Jr. I would say it is a career best performance from a man with a very varied cinema CV.
There are some other great performances, though surprised at some of the nominations.
WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
Robert Downey Jr in "Oppenheimer"
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN
Ryan Gosling in "Barbie"
I have a huge soft spot for this movie and the phenomenal performance from Ryan Gosling, and if anyone can win against Downey Jr, then it is the very deserving Mr Gosling.
Best Actress in A Supporting Role
As above, there is at least one very questionable nomination, I am not going to name name's but you know who you are. It is always great to see a class act like Jodie Foster get another nomination. Hard to believe she has been on the Academy's nominee list for over 45 years.
Some very welcome first time nominees, including the wonderful Danielle Brooks in "The Color Purple", and in any other year, I think she would stand a good chance of taking home Oscar.
But I think it is safe to say that there is only name for this award, and it is.....
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
Da'Vine Joy Randolph in "The Holdovers"
Best Original Screenplay
If some categories are pretty much set in stone, then this one is definitely wide open. I would straight away rule out "May December". Not sure if I even agree with its nomination, so for me it has little to no chance of winning.
But other than that, any of the other four could walk away with Oscar. Of the four, for me there is one clear outstanding piece of writing....
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
David Hemingson for "The Holdovers"
Best Adapted Screenplay
Like Original Screenplay, this could provide some great surprises on Oscar night with most of the nominations standing a reasonable chance of bagging an Academy Award.
Some were surprised at the inclusion of "Barbie" in this category, rather than the more appropriate Original category, now going up against its 'Barbenheimer' partner.
WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
Jonathan Glazer for "The Zone of Interest"
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for "Barbie"
Best Actor in A Leading Role
At one point Cillian Murphy more or less had the Oscar guaranteed for his title role in the Christopher Nolan epic "Oppenheimer".
Many say now that the ultimate test will be who bags the coveted SAG award. Both Murphy and his closest rival, Paul Giamatti have won several awards for their respective roles, both also having won a Golden Globe, but only one can be victorious on Oscar night, barring there being a tie, which is not impossible, it has happened before.
All five lead actors are wonderful, and though much has been said why Leonardo DiCaprio has not been nominated for "Killers of the Flower Moon", but my answer is simple. See the actors who are nominated, all incredibly worthy, and on any given year, any could walk away with the award. I especially loved Colman Domingo in "Rustin", and yes it would be great to see the first openly gay actor take to the stage.
I am going to make my prediction ahead of the SAG Awards, so here goes.....
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
At the end of the day, he is one of the most respected and beloved actors working in the business. So for me it has to be....
Paul Giamatti in "The Holdovers"
Best Actress in A Leading Role
We have quite a group of amazing actresses here, from past nominees like Carey Mulligan and one of my all time favourites, Annette Bening, to first timers Sandra Huller and Lily Gladstone, and of course previous winner Emma Stone.
Like the chaps, we have a battle royale between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone, both who took home a Golden Globe. Both are equally excellent in their roles and if there was any justice then history would repeat itself from the 1969 Oscars and we would have a tie. But if pushed, here are my thoughts....
WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
Lily Gladstone for "Killers of the Flower Moon"
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN
Carey Mulligan in "Maestro".
I talked about justice above, well for me the performance that I was wowed by the most would be that of this amazing actress, who has surely got to get Oscar recognition at some point.
Best Director
Some have talked about surprises on Oscar night, but I think we are on safe ground here. Yes it is an absolute travesty that Greta Gerwig has NOT been nominated for "Barbie". The biggest film of the year, she got many first timers into the Cinema to watch her film, but does she get rewarded by the Academy with a nomination??? SHAME SHAME SHAME on you Academy.
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
Christopher Nolan for "Oppenheimer"
I know that I am not a huge fan of the film, but I can wow at the spectacle at what he created, and the fact that he continues to champion the big screen experience
BEST PICTURE
Now the big one, and that of Best Picture. Given the way that this result is tabulated, and that there are upto 10 nominees, it can make for some interesting winner decisions.
As I have mentioned, yes I have seen all ten films.For me, half of them have a question mark against being nominated.
Of the remaining five, four I really loved, and three were exceptional. They being.....
WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
Alas, as much as I loved these three wonderful films, all different in their own way, I think that the Nolan epic will prevail and take the top prize.
WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN
In an ideal world, yes I would love to see this tale of the Mattel Classic doll take home the most respected film prize.
So there you have it. We now just have to wait til March 10th to find out who will be crowned Oscar winners at the 96th Annual Academy Awards. Best of luck to all the nominees....
