The 97th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions

 

It is the eve of the biggest night in Hollywood, and indeed the entire film calendar. What a year it has been. At one point it looked like the ceremony was going to be postponed following the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area, but as the expression says....."The Show Must Go On".

2024 was a first for me, in that no film scored a maximum of 10 points. A couple of films got very close, and maybe in time and with some reflection that will change.

As always there are some questionable nominations and obvious snubs. But it has gone from being the year of "The Brutalist" to anything is possible.

As always, I shall be looking at the main categories, and naming what I would like to see win and what I think shall win. Hopefully in some of the categories they will be the same. As of typing I have seen 39 of the 45 nominations in the main 8 categories.

 

Best Actor in A Supporting Role.

For me the biggest surprise was seeing no nomination for Stanley Tucci in the excellent "Conclave". It would have been perfect to see him nominated alongside his fellow co-star Ralph Fiennes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This years event has gone from being a run of certainties to take your pick. But one thing is for sure in that Kieran Culkin will be picking up the Oscar for Best Actor in a Supporting Role for his work on "A Real Pain". 

  

And whilst I am not the biggest fan of "The Brutalist", and despite some ham over-acting at the start of his performance, I would like to see Guy Pearce win. Though had things gone my way, then not only would Stanley Tucci have been nominated, but he would also have been triumphant, in an ideal world.

Best Actress in A Supporting Role.

For me, and I know many others, the biggest mystery here is why Zoe Saldana is nominated in the Supporting category when she clearly carries the whole film, and has top billing. Very bizarre.

 

This is one of the few, if only award that "Emelia Perez" will be successful in winning. It is a great performance and Zoe will be a worthy winner.

 

However, despite being a small screen time performance, there is something rather special when seeing Isabella Rossellini on the screen in "Conclave". If there was to be a big upset, then I would be delighted if this were to be it. God does move in mysterious ways.

Best Original Screenplay.

For me there is only one winner in this category, and the emphasis is on the gory.

 

The trials and tribulations of a sex worker who gets married to the Son of a Russian Oligarch may not sound like the usual material nominated for Best Original Screenplay but times they are a changing. There is a lot of love for this film, and I think it is the favourite to win this catergory.

 

If the above is an example of more unlikely material,then "The Substance" will be off the chart but I would dearly love to see Coralie Fargeat get The Oscar her stunning work on this remarkable screenplay.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay.

Like Best Actor in a Supporting Role, this one is a no-brainer, and thankfully it is the first Award where I agree with what I think will win.

 

This compelling screenplay from the novel by Robert Harris has been a winner time and time again, and rightly so. It will be an absolute delight to see screenwriter Peter Straughan take to the stage to collect his Academy Award

Best Actor in a Leading Role.

About six weeks ago, any sane person would have put their life savings on Adrian Brody to win the Oscar for Best Actor in A Leading Role for his work on "The Brutalist". 

 

But it is safe to say it has become a three way race between him, Ralph Fiennes for "Conclave" and Timothee Chalamet for "A Complete Unknown". Anyone who knows me knows that I have a huge regard for Mr. Chalamet, I think he is one of the most remarkable actors working in the business. I still think that he was robbed for his work on the heartbreakingly beautiful "Call Me By Your Name".

As to who I would like to see win well that's easy, for me it has to be Ralph Fiennes for his stunningly understated performance as Thomas Lawrence in "Conclave". And yes I would be equally delighted should Timothee Chalamet win for his work as Bob Dylan. Yes he did win the Screen Actors Guild award last weekend, and that can be an indicator for Oscar success, but I think he will be this years Lily Gladstone, in that she won the SAG Award last year but failed to win The Oscar. And for the record, I thought TC's SAG speech was great, there is nothing wrong with striving to want to be the best at what you do.

Best Actress in a Leading Role.

Like Mr. Brody, I feel that Demi Moore, for her work on "The Substance", was as close to a certainty for Actress in a Leading Role as one could get, but I feel that there is a possibility of Oscar upset, and that upset is in the form of Mikey Madison for her role in "Anora".

 

Whilst Ms. Madison is undoubtedly talented and does give an excellent performance, I feel that Demi Moore just knocks it out the park time and time again in a real tour de force performance. And though it should not matter but there is her career, she has been acting for some time, and given the subject matter of mature actresses, I think it would be the perfect icing on the cake for her to win this much deserved award.

Best Director.

I feel almost loathed to choose in this category because for me the biggest snub is that Edward Berger was not nominated for his faultless directing of "Conclave", and whilst we're at it, the film was also robbed of a nomination for Cinematography too.

 

I know that the smart money is on Sean Baker for directing "Anora" especially given his DGA Award, but I still think that Brady Corbet will win for his work on "The Brutalist", though I would be delighted should Mr. Baker be successful.

 

 

But my personal choice, given the lack of Edward Berger, would be Coralie Fargeat for her amazing work on "The Substance", there can be no more original film this year.

 BEST PICTURE
 

Like Lead Actor, six weeks ago I would have also bet my life savings, begrudgingly, on "The Brutalist" winning Best Picture. Now once again it is a three horse race.

Given that there are anything up to ten films allowed to be nominated in the category of Best Picture, and indeed we have ten nominees this year, it can make things very interesting, especially that the scoring format is that of a preferential vote. 

The general consesus is that "Anora" is going to be victorious and win the biggest award of the evening. Personally it is not the kind of film that I would think worthy to be Best Picture, "The Brutalist" either for that matter. I would quite easily ditch half of this years nominees. 

I do think that "The Brutalist" will win Best Picture, but I say that through gritted teeth. But I am keeping my fingers crossed and a little hope that there may be a chance that "Conclave" could take home the top prize, and it would be a very happy me to see this happen. Of the ten nominated movies, it is by far the best and a most worthy winner.

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN                                                              WHAT I WANT TO WIN

Kieran Culkin                                Actor in a Supporting Role               Guy Pearce

Zoe Saldana                                  Actress in a Supporting Role             Isabella Rossellini

Anora                                            Best Original Screenplay                The Substance

Conclave                                       Best Screenplay Adaptation           Conclave

Adrian Brody                                Best Lead Actor                              Ralph Fiennes

Demi Moore                                  Best Lead Actress                           Demi Moore

Brady Corbet                                 Best Director                                  Coralie Fargeat

The Brutalist                                  Best Picture                                   Conclave

 

There you have it. Not long now til we see who and what will be the toast of Hollywood

Best of luck to Conan O'Brien, his first time as Host of The Oscars.  

 

 

The 96th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions

 

Another year of cinematic delights, and of varying degrees of entertainment and success. Some firm favourites have returned to our screens but not all have proved to be the box office gold as was expected. 

One thing is clear, a huge budget does not guarantee to have cinema seats filled time and time again. And something I have said for a while, is that a good proportion of the cinema going public are getting weary of Super-hero movies. At one stage, like a Bond film or a Tarantino film, it was event cinema, but since the floodgates opened, and we seem to have a new film pretty much every other month, it has become the norm, and we yearn for originality.

As always, I shall be looking at the main categories, and naming what I would like to see win and what I think shall win. Hopefully in some of the categories they will be the same.

And for the first time in recent memory, ahead of the Oscars ceremony, I have seen all 45 nominations in the main 8 categories.   So here, we go....

 

Best Actor in A Supporting Role 

I am really torn on this category. I know that I am in the minority in that I was not blown away by "Oppenheimer". But one thing that did strike me was the remarkable performance from Robert Downey Jr. I would say it is a career best performance from a man with a very varied cinema CV.

 There are some other great performances, though surprised at some of the nominations.

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

Robert Downey Jr in "Oppenheimer"

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN

Ryan Gosling in "Barbie"

I have a huge soft spot for this movie and the phenomenal performance from Ryan Gosling, and if anyone can win against Downey Jr, then it is the very deserving Mr Gosling.

 

 Best Actress in A Supporting Role 

As above, there is at least one very questionable nomination, I am not going to name name's but you know who you are. It is always great to see a class act like Jodie Foster get another nomination. Hard to believe she has been on the Academy's nominee list for over 45 years.

Some very welcome first time nominees, including the wonderful Danielle Brooks in "The Color Purple", and in any other year, I think she would stand a good chance of taking home Oscar.

But I think it is safe to say that there is only name for this award, and it is.....

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

Da'Vine Joy Randolph in "The Holdovers"

 Best Original Screenplay

If some categories are pretty much set in stone, then this one is definitely wide open. I would straight away rule out "May December". Not sure if I even agree with its nomination, so for me it has little to no chance of winning.

But other than that, any of the other four could walk away with Oscar. Of the four, for me there is one clear outstanding piece of writing....

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

David Hemingson for "The Holdovers"

 Best Adapted Screenplay

Like Original Screenplay, this could provide some great surprises on Oscar night with most of the nominations standing a reasonable chance of bagging an Academy Award.

Some were surprised at the inclusion of "Barbie" in this category, rather than the more appropriate Original category, now going up against its 'Barbenheimer' partner. 

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

Jonathan Glazer for "The Zone of Interest"

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN

Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for "Barbie"

 

 

 

 

 Best Actor in A Leading Role

At one point Cillian Murphy more or less had the Oscar guaranteed for his title role in the Christopher Nolan epic "Oppenheimer". 

Many say now that the  ultimate test will be who bags the coveted SAG award. Both Murphy and his closest rival, Paul Giamatti have won several awards for their respective roles, both also having won a Golden Globe, but only one can be victorious on Oscar night, barring there being a tie, which is not impossible, it has happened before. 

All five lead actors are wonderful, and though much has been said why Leonardo DiCaprio has not been nominated for "Killers of the Flower Moon", but my answer is simple. See the actors who are nominated, all incredibly worthy, and on any given year, any could walk away with the award. I especially loved Colman Domingo in "Rustin", and yes it would be great to see the first openly gay actor take to the stage. 

I am going to make my prediction ahead of the SAG Awards, so here goes.....

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

At the end of the day, he is one of the most respected and beloved actors working in the business. So for me it has to be....

Paul Giamatti in "The Holdovers"

 Best Actress in A Leading Role

We have quite a group of amazing actresses here, from past nominees like Carey Mulligan and one of my all time favourites, Annette Bening, to first timers Sandra Huller and Lily Gladstone, and of course previous winner Emma Stone.

Like the chaps, we have a battle royale between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone, both who took home a Golden Globe. Both are equally excellent in their roles and if there was any justice then history would repeat itself from the 1969 Oscars and we would have a tie. But if pushed, here are my thoughts....

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

Lily Gladstone for "Killers of the Flower Moon"

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN

Carey Mulligan in "Maestro".

I talked about justice above, well for me the performance that I was wowed by the most would be that of this amazing actress, who has surely got to get Oscar recognition at some point.

 Best Director

Some have talked about surprises on Oscar night, but I think we are on safe ground here. Yes it is an absolute travesty that Greta Gerwig has NOT been nominated for "Barbie". The biggest film of the year, she got many first timers into the Cinema to watch her film, but does she get rewarded by the Academy with a nomination???  SHAME SHAME SHAME on you Academy.

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN & WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

Christopher Nolan for "Oppenheimer"

I know that I am not a huge fan of the film, but I can wow at the spectacle at what he created, and the fact that he continues to champion the big screen experience

BEST PICTURE

Now the big one, and that of Best Picture. Given the way that this result is tabulated, and that there are upto 10 nominees, it can make for some interesting winner decisions. 

As I have mentioned, yes I have seen all ten films.For me, half of them have a question mark against being nominated.

Of the remaining five, four I really loved, and three were exceptional. They being.....

 

 

 

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

Alas, as much as I loved these three wonderful films, all different in their own way, I think that the Nolan epic will prevail and take the top prize.

  

WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WIN

In an ideal world, yes I would love to see this tale of the Mattel Classic doll take home the most respected film prize.

So there you have it. We now just have to wait til March 10th to find out who will be crowned Oscar winners at the 96th Annual Academy Awards. Best of luck to all the nominees....

"The 95th Annual Academy Awards" - My Predictions

 

Well, how the last year has gone by so quickly, and the whole Film Award season. It all comes to end tonight with the handing out of the most famous of all, the Academy Awards.

Over the years the Academy has garnered criticism that it does not respect more popularist films, box office favourites, and that they only reward art house movies, or films that the general public tend to stay away from. I think it is safe to say that this year changes that with nominations for box office smashes like "Top Gun:Maverick" esp in the Best Picture category.

But one other factor is that of late, the Oscars have certainly become memorable, but unfortunately for the Academy, for all the wrong reasons. Whether it be the wrong film named as Best Picture, or Presenters being physically attacked, the biggest talking point is anything other than what did win Best Picture.

At one point, it looked like the 95th Oscars was going to be one of those boring shows where you could safely predict who was going to win what. But after the Awards that have been handed out so far, and with some interesting curve balls, many of the Oscars could go in any number of different directions. And with the Best Picture list, and how the Academy score said category, it is not impossible for a crowd pleasing film like either "Elvis" or "Top Gun:Maverick" to walk away with that Award.

So, as usual I will be providing my list of the main categories, and I shall be listing what I think will win and what I would like to see win, and also some comments on the nominations

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

There are some excellent contenders in this category from the always excellent Brendan Gleeson in "The Banshees of Inisherin" to newcomers like Barry Keoghan, who likewise is excellent in the same film. Some home love saw him win the BAFTA, but I think we all know which way this Award is heading. I may not be a fan of the film, but I like so many of certain age, I grew up watching the brilliant performances of Ke Huy Quan, and given his backstory and how Hollywood turned its back on him, and he left acting for many years, it really would be a wonderful moment to see Ke top his Awards haul by bagging the Oscar.

WHAT WILL WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 BEST PERFORMANCE BY ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

As above, again there are some strong performances in this category, and any given year they would be a strong contender. But for me this is a two horse race. I do have misgivings about the nomination for Angela Bassett. Yes she does bring gravitas to her role in "Black Panther Wakanda Forever", in what is a pretty bland film, and is a highpoint of the movie, but Oscar worthy??? Some feel it is as much a career win for her body of work, as much as for the film. But then if that is the case, then surely Jamie Lee Curtis should win hands down. Again though not a fan of the film, she is quite brilliant as the tax inspector from hell. And likewise she has been in the industry for almost 50 years, so if we are awarding longevity.....

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Angela Bassett (Black Panther  Wakanda Forever)
 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

 

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Quite a mixed bag here. We can pretty much rule out "Tar" and "Triangle of Sadness" (over-rated) from this category. I would love to see Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner win for "The Fabelmans" as of the remaining three films, it is the one I enjoyed the most. But its between the Daniels and Academy favourite Martin McDonagh. I think there is every chance that the Daniels will win another category, so this will be a good opportunity to reward McDonagh, especially when he lost out for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri".

                                                               

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans)

 

 

                                                                                             

 

 

 

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

I do not think this is a particularly strong for Screenplay adaptations. No disrespect but if "Top Gun: Maverick" is nominated, then clearly there is something lacking.  

Given some of the other nominees, there can only be one winner and it is an easy one to call...

WHAT WILL WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Prior to last weekends SAG Awards, you could have pretty much said that it was a given that Cate Blanchett would be walking home with her third Oscar. But has Michelle Yeoh thrown a spanner in the works?? I only hope that all the ballots are in, because her Instagram comments could end up costing her if not.  

Personally I do not think that Blanchett deserves the Oscar, it is a great performance in an average film, but for me just to name one other nominee, Ana de Amas is much better in "Blonde". I am a huge admirer of Michelle Yeoh, and would be delighted to see her win the Oscar. This is a tough one to call.

 

 

 WHAT WILL WIN - Cate Blanchett (Tár)

 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

 

 

 

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I question most strongly some of the performances in this category. Was there a lack of outstanding leading male performances this year? One in particular, having recently seen the film, any reasonable actor could have played the part as well, there is virtually nothing within the performance that makes it stand out, and definitely not Oscar worthy. I know a few have championed Colin Farrell, in what is a reasonably good performance, but ultimately it's between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Both really do excel in their respectibe roles, and I would be delighted to see either win. But like with Ke Huy Quan, Hollywood loves a comeback story, and hopefully it will be enough to push Fraser to victory. Like many have said, the film as a whole is not the best, where as I loved "Elvis" but Fraser has that emotional range more so than Butler. As I have mentioned before, Fraser has done outstanding work in the past in great movies like "School Ties", "With Honors" and of course "Gods & Monsters", so his time is due.

WHAT WILL WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

BEST DIRECTOR

Like so many of this years categories, for me this is a two horse race, between the up and coming Daniels, and the old guard of Steven Spielberg. Much has been made that there are no female nominations this year, especially when there were so many to choose from. Personally I think it is crazy to nominate Ruben Östlund and Todd Field. I feel that neither deserved their nominations. One man who did deserve to be in this category was Edward Berger for his amazing work on the WWI epic "All Quiet On The Western Front".

But back to those who are nominated. One trend is to split Best Picture and Best Director, though onme would imagine that they go hand in hand, but for some reason this logic eludes the Academy. Because of the imaginitive style and scale of their film, I think the Award will go to EEAAO

 

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

BEST PICTURE

Since the Academy changed the number of films nominated in this category to a maximum of 10 it has created a situation where a left field film could easily win the top award. With a possible 10 nominees, like this year, it really splits the field, and with the way the scores are tabulated, anything is possible. 

For me you can rule out four of the nominated films straight away - they being "Tár", "Avatar: The Way of Water", "Triangle of Sadness" and "Women Talking".

All ten films are given a score, so whilst there is a lot of love for "Everything Everywhere All At Once", that may only score 10's from a die hard section of the Academy, and elsewhere scoring medium to low scores. Where as something like "All Quiet on The Western Front" or "The Fabelmans" or even "Top Gun: Maverick" might score consistent 7's and 8's from across the board. So this really is a tough one to call.

I am going to make an exception, and offer three nominees in this category....

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN (PURELY FOR FINANCIAL GAIN)

 

Yes I have had my obligatory bets on this years Oscars, and purely for profit I would be delighted to see this win Best Picture. 

Plus it would be the first film in Oscar history to win the same award twice, as "All Quiet On The Western Front" won Best Picture back in 1930

 

 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN

 

 

 

If a win is based on entertainment, then the film that I enjoyed the most would have to be Baz Luhrmann's "Elvis".  It brilliantly told the story of The King, with a great central performance from Austin Butler. 

I know that it will not happen, but I would be equally delighted if  "Top Gun: Maverick" took home the top prize. It was a great romp and good fun was had by all. 

If we are talking social message, then as above I would be pleased to see "All Quiet on The Western Front" win, though given it will win Best Foreign Language Film, I doubt it will do a "Parasite" and win both.

 

 

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

I know that this will be an unpopular choice, but then again so were my predictions for Sir Anthony Hopkins to beat Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category a few years ago, but I was proved right.

I just think that the old guard of the Academy, of which there are still high numbers will not vote for EEAAO in high numbers, so I am going to take a punt and go for the Spielberg film to take home the top prize.

So there you have it, signed, sealed and delivered. Delighted to see that Jimmy Kimmel is back as host. The list of presenters does not inspire but I am sure it will be a great show, and hopefully tomorrow we will all be talking about Who and What won, and not about some incident that occured during the show.

Happy 95th Oscars

"The Whale" (Preview Screening)

 

Like "Empire of Light", the trailer for this film had me hooked, and moved me every time I saw it. 

We are introduced to Charlie, an obese online teacher, who is spending his last few days on this mortal coil, and in those last few days he seeks to reconnect with his Daughter, who he has been estranged from since leaving both her and her Mother for one of his male Students some years earlier.

Given his size, he is housebound, and struggles to most everyday tasks for himself. He does have a Carer, who visits him daily, and she is the Sister of his former male Partner. She is doing her best to keep him alive, but clearly Charlie has a plan.

Ellie is  a very troubled teen, in fact that is beinbg polite. I would almost describe her as loathsome, and if I were Charlie, I would want to keep as far away from her a possible, but being the kind hearted soul that he is, he sees the good in everyone and everything. 

Also coming into the mix is Latter day Saint Thomas, who is trying to convey that a better World is going to be forthcoming, etc etc. Quite frankly I am not sure of what purpose his character serves, although well played by Ty Simpkins. Sadie Sink is equally as good as his repugnant Daughter.

The relationship between Charlie and his Carer Liz is well done, with great work from both Fraser and Hong Chau. You can clearly see the love between, and the love that she knows he still has for his former Partner and her Brother. I had expected to be an emotional wreck by the end of the film, and I wasn't. I would say it is a very good film, but not truly exceptional. But what is at the heart of the film is a phenomenal performance from Brendan Fraser as Charlie. People talk about this resurgence in his career, and that it is a once in a lifetime performance. But he has always had this level of performance in him. Go and check some of his earlier great work on films like "School Ties", "With Honors" and of course his role as the love interest of Sir Ian McKellen in "Gods And Monsters". 

The performance is truly amazing, as is the make-up used to bring Charlie and his obsesity to life. There is much talk of an Oscar, and yes I would be delighted to see him win. Whether he will do so is another matter, we shall see next month......8 out of 10

"M3gan"

 

Here we have the latest thriller from the Blumhouse team. A young girl is orphaned, and goes to live with her Aunt, who is a robotics genius. Struggling to cope with her grief, the Aunt creates a new play friend for her Niece, a piece of AI robotic wizardry, and called Megan. 

Given that her primary keeper is Cady (the Niece), Megan will do all it must to look after her, and more importantly to protect her. You can clearly see where this is going.

From the Neighbours dog, to a local bully, all become the target of Megan, as she engages on a psychotic journey from teacher and saviour to your worst nightmare. 

The plot is wafer thin, incredibly predictable, and with very little tension. And when all looks lost for Aunt and Niece, their rescuer is all too obvious. The Android itself looks and is rather creepy, but should have been used more effectively.

Despite my low praise, I clearly know very little, as the film has been a hit and a sequel has already been given the green light. Dull and predictable...............4 out of 10