The 97th Annual Academy Awards - My Predictions

 

It is the eve of the biggest night in Hollywood, and indeed the entire film calendar. What a year it has been. At one point it looked like the ceremony was going to be postponed following the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area, but as the expression says....."The Show Must Go On".

2024 was a first for me, in that no film scored a maximum of 10 points. A couple of films got very close, and maybe in time and with some reflection that will change.

As always there are some questionable nominations and obvious snubs. But it has gone from being the year of "The Brutalist" to anything is possible.

As always, I shall be looking at the main categories, and naming what I would like to see win and what I think shall win. Hopefully in some of the categories they will be the same. As of typing I have seen 39 of the 45 nominations in the main 8 categories.

 

Best Actor in A Supporting Role.

For me the biggest surprise was seeing no nomination for Stanley Tucci in the excellent "Conclave". It would have been perfect to see him nominated alongside his fellow co-star Ralph Fiennes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This years event has gone from being a run of certainties to take your pick. But one thing is for sure in that Kieran Culkin will be picking up the Oscar for Best Actor in a Supporting Role for his work on "A Real Pain". 

  

And whilst I am not the biggest fan of "The Brutalist", and despite some ham over-acting at the start of his performance, I would like to see Guy Pearce win. Though had things gone my way, then not only would Stanley Tucci have been nominated, but he would also have been triumphant, in an ideal world.

Best Actress in A Supporting Role.

For me, and I know many others, the biggest mystery here is why Zoe Saldana is nominated in the Supporting category when she clearly carries the whole film, and has top billing. Very bizarre.

 

This is one of the few, if only award that "Emelia Perez" will be successful in winning. It is a great performance and Zoe will be a worthy winner.

 

However, despite being a small screen time performance, there is something rather special when seeing Isabella Rossellini on the screen in "Conclave". If there was to be a big upset, then I would be delighted if this were to be it. God does move in mysterious ways.

Best Original Screenplay.

For me there is only one winner in this category, and the emphasis is on the gory.

 

The trials and tribulations of a sex worker who gets married to the Son of a Russian Oligarch may not sound like the usual material nominated for Best Original Screenplay but times they are a changing. There is a lot of love for this film, and I think it is the favourite to win this catergory.

 

If the above is an example of more unlikely material,then "The Substance" will be off the chart but I would dearly love to see Coralie Fargeat get The Oscar her stunning work on this remarkable screenplay.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay.

Like Best Actor in a Supporting Role, this one is a no-brainer, and thankfully it is the first Award where I agree with what I think will win.

 

This compelling screenplay from the novel by Robert Harris has been a winner time and time again, and rightly so. It will be an absolute delight to see screenwriter Peter Straughan take to the stage to collect his Academy Award

Best Actor in a Leading Role.

About six weeks ago, any sane person would have put their life savings on Adrian Brody to win the Oscar for Best Actor in A Leading Role for his work on "The Brutalist". 

 

But it is safe to say it has become a three way race between him, Ralph Fiennes for "Conclave" and Timothee Chalamet for "A Complete Unknown". Anyone who knows me knows that I have a huge regard for Mr. Chalamet, I think he is one of the most remarkable actors working in the business. I still think that he was robbed for his work on the heartbreakingly beautiful "Call Me By Your Name".

As to who I would like to see win well that's easy, for me it has to be Ralph Fiennes for his stunningly understated performance as Thomas Lawrence in "Conclave". And yes I would be equally delighted should Timothee Chalamet win for his work as Bob Dylan. Yes he did win the Screen Actors Guild award last weekend, and that can be an indicator for Oscar success, but I think he will be this years Lily Gladstone, in that she won the SAG Award last year but failed to win The Oscar. And for the record, I thought TC's SAG speech was great, there is nothing wrong with striving to want to be the best at what you do.

Best Actress in a Leading Role.

Like Mr. Brody, I feel that Demi Moore, for her work on "The Substance", was as close to a certainty for Actress in a Leading Role as one could get, but I feel that there is a possibility of Oscar upset, and that upset is in the form of Mikey Madison for her role in "Anora".

 

Whilst Ms. Madison is undoubtedly talented and does give an excellent performance, I feel that Demi Moore just knocks it out the park time and time again in a real tour de force performance. And though it should not matter but there is her career, she has been acting for some time, and given the subject matter of mature actresses, I think it would be the perfect icing on the cake for her to win this much deserved award.

Best Director.

I feel almost loathed to choose in this category because for me the biggest snub is that Edward Berger was not nominated for his faultless directing of "Conclave", and whilst we're at it, the film was also robbed of a nomination for Cinematography too.

 

I know that the smart money is on Sean Baker for directing "Anora" especially given his DGA Award, but I still think that Brady Corbet will win for his work on "The Brutalist", though I would be delighted should Mr. Baker be successful.

 

 

But my personal choice, given the lack of Edward Berger, would be Coralie Fargeat for her amazing work on "The Substance", there can be no more original film this year.

 BEST PICTURE
 

Like Lead Actor, six weeks ago I would have also bet my life savings, begrudgingly, on "The Brutalist" winning Best Picture. Now once again it is a three horse race.

Given that there are anything up to ten films allowed to be nominated in the category of Best Picture, and indeed we have ten nominees this year, it can make things very interesting, especially that the scoring format is that of a preferential vote. 

The general consesus is that "Anora" is going to be victorious and win the biggest award of the evening. Personally it is not the kind of film that I would think worthy to be Best Picture, "The Brutalist" either for that matter. I would quite easily ditch half of this years nominees. 

I do think that "The Brutalist" will win Best Picture, but I say that through gritted teeth. But I am keeping my fingers crossed and a little hope that there may be a chance that "Conclave" could take home the top prize, and it would be a very happy me to see this happen. Of the ten nominated movies, it is by far the best and a most worthy winner.

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN                                                              WHAT I WANT TO WIN

Kieran Culkin                                Actor in a Supporting Role               Guy Pearce

Zoe Saldana                                  Actress in a Supporting Role             Isabella Rossellini

Anora                                            Best Original Screenplay                The Substance

Conclave                                       Best Screenplay Adaptation           Conclave

Adrian Brody                                Best Lead Actor                              Ralph Fiennes

Demi Moore                                  Best Lead Actress                           Demi Moore

Brady Corbet                                 Best Director                                  Coralie Fargeat

The Brutalist                                  Best Picture                                   Conclave

 

There you have it. Not long now til we see who and what will be the toast of Hollywood

Best of luck to Conan O'Brien, his first time as Host of The Oscars.