Over the years the Academy has garnered criticism that it does not respect more popularist films, box office favourites, and that they only reward art house movies, or films that the general public tend to stay away from. I think it is safe to say that this year changes that with nominations for box office smashes like "Top Gun:Maverick" esp in the Best Picture category.
But one other factor is that of late, the Oscars have certainly become memorable, but unfortunately for the Academy, for all the wrong reasons. Whether it be the wrong film named as Best Picture, or Presenters being physically attacked, the biggest talking point is anything other than what did win Best Picture.
At one point, it looked like the 95th Oscars was going to be one of those boring shows where you could safely predict who was going to win what. But after the Awards that have been handed out so far, and with some interesting curve balls, many of the Oscars could go in any number of different directions. And with the Best Picture list, and how the Academy score said category, it is not impossible for a crowd pleasing film like either "Elvis" or "Top Gun:Maverick" to walk away with that Award.
So, as usual I will be providing my list of the main categories, and I shall be listing what I think will win and what I would like to see win, and also some comments on the nominations
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
There are some excellent contenders in this category from the always excellent Brendan Gleeson in "The Banshees of Inisherin" to newcomers like Barry Keoghan, who likewise is excellent in the same film. Some home love saw him win the BAFTA, but I think we all know which way this Award is heading. I may not be a fan of the film, but I like so many of certain age, I grew up watching the brilliant performances of Ke Huy Quan, and given his backstory and how Hollywood turned its back on him, and he left acting for many years, it really would be a wonderful moment to see Ke top his Awards haul by bagging the Oscar.
WHAT WILL WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
As above, again there are some strong performances in this category, and any given year they would be a strong contender. But for me this is a two horse race. I do have misgivings about the nomination for Angela Bassett. Yes she does bring gravitas to her role in "Black Panther Wakanda Forever", in what is a pretty bland film, and is a highpoint of the movie, but Oscar worthy??? Some feel it is as much a career win for her body of work, as much as for the film. But then if that is the case, then surely Jamie Lee Curtis should win hands down. Again though not a fan of the film, she is quite brilliant as the tax inspector from hell. And likewise she has been in the industry for almost 50 years, so if we are awarding longevity.....
WHAT WILL WIN - Angela Bassett (Black Panther Wakanda Forever)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Quite a mixed bag here. We can pretty much rule out "Tar" and "Triangle of Sadness" (over-rated) from this category. I would love to see Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner win for "The Fabelmans" as of the remaining three films, it is the one I enjoyed the most. But its between the Daniels and Academy favourite Martin McDonagh. I think there is every chance that the Daniels will win another category, so this will be a good opportunity to reward McDonagh, especially when he lost out for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri".
WHAT WILL WIN - Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans)
BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
I do not think this is a particularly strong for Screenplay adaptations. No disrespect but if "Top Gun: Maverick" is nominated, then clearly there is something lacking.
Given some of the other nominees, there can only be one winner and it is an easy one to call...
WHAT WILL WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Prior to last weekends SAG Awards, you could have pretty much said that it was a given that Cate Blanchett would be walking home with her third Oscar. But has Michelle Yeoh thrown a spanner in the works?? I only hope that all the ballots are in, because her Instagram comments could end up costing her if not.
Personally I do not think that Blanchett deserves the Oscar, it is a great performance in an average film, but for me just to name one other nominee, Ana de Amas is much better in "Blonde". I am a huge admirer of Michelle Yeoh, and would be delighted to see her win the Oscar. This is a tough one to call.
WHAT WILL WIN - Cate Blanchett (Tár)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
I question most strongly some of the performances in this category. Was there a lack of outstanding leading male performances this year? One in particular, having recently seen the film, any reasonable actor could have played the part as well, there is virtually nothing within the performance that makes it stand out, and definitely not Oscar worthy. I know a few have championed Colin Farrell, in what is a reasonably good performance, but ultimately it's between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Both really do excel in their respectibe roles, and I would be delighted to see either win. But like with Ke Huy Quan, Hollywood loves a comeback story, and hopefully it will be enough to push Fraser to victory. Like many have said, the film as a whole is not the best, where as I loved "Elvis" but Fraser has that emotional range more so than Butler. As I have mentioned before, Fraser has done outstanding work in the past in great movies like "School Ties", "With Honors" and of course "Gods & Monsters", so his time is due.
WHAT WILL WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
BEST DIRECTOR
Like so many of this years categories, for me this is a two horse race, between the up and coming Daniels, and the old guard of Steven Spielberg. Much has been made that there are no female nominations this year, especially when there were so many to choose from. Personally I think it is crazy to nominate Ruben Östlund and Todd Field. I feel that neither deserved their nominations. One man who did deserve to be in this category was Edward Berger for his amazing work on the WWI epic "All Quiet On The Western Front".
But back to those who are nominated. One trend is to split Best Picture and Best Director, though onme would imagine that they go hand in hand, but for some reason this logic eludes the Academy. Because of the imaginitive style and scale of their film, I think the Award will go to EEAAO
WHAT WILL WIN - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
BEST PICTURE
Since the Academy changed the number of films nominated in this category to a maximum of 10 it has created a situation where a left field film could easily win the top award. With a possible 10 nominees, like this year, it really splits the field, and with the way the scores are tabulated, anything is possible.
For me you can rule out four of the nominated films straight away - they being "Tár", "Avatar: The Way of Water", "Triangle of Sadness" and "Women Talking".
All ten films are given a score, so whilst there is a lot of love for "Everything Everywhere All At Once", that may only score 10's from a die hard section of the Academy, and elsewhere scoring medium to low scores. Where as something like "All Quiet on The Western Front" or "The Fabelmans" or even "Top Gun: Maverick" might score consistent 7's and 8's from across the board. So this really is a tough one to call.
I am going to make an exception, and offer three nominees in this category....
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN (PURELY FOR FINANCIAL GAIN)
Yes I have had my obligatory bets on this years Oscars, and purely for profit I would be delighted to see this win Best Picture.
Plus it would be the first film in Oscar history to win the same award twice, as "All Quiet On The Western Front" won Best Picture back in 1930
WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN
If a win is based on entertainment, then the film that I enjoyed the most would have to be Baz Luhrmann's "Elvis". It brilliantly told the story of The King, with a great central performance from Austin Butler.
I know that it will not happen, but I would be equally delighted if "Top Gun: Maverick" took home the top prize. It was a great romp and good fun was had by all.
If we are talking social message, then as above I would be pleased to see "All Quiet on The Western Front" win, though given it will win Best Foreign Language Film, I doubt it will do a "Parasite" and win both.
WHAT I THINK WILL WIN
I know that this will be an unpopular choice, but then again so were my predictions for Sir Anthony Hopkins to beat Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category a few years ago, but I was proved right.
I just think that the old guard of the Academy, of which there are still high numbers will not vote for EEAAO in high numbers, so I am going to take a punt and go for the Spielberg film to take home the top prize.
So there you have it, signed, sealed and delivered. Delighted to see that Jimmy Kimmel is back as host. The list of presenters does not inspire but I am sure it will be a great show, and hopefully tomorrow we will all be talking about Who and What won, and not about some incident that occured during the show.
Happy 95th Oscars
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