"The 95th Annual Academy Awards" - My Predictions

 

Well, how the last year has gone by so quickly, and the whole Film Award season. It all comes to end tonight with the handing out of the most famous of all, the Academy Awards.

Over the years the Academy has garnered criticism that it does not respect more popularist films, box office favourites, and that they only reward art house movies, or films that the general public tend to stay away from. I think it is safe to say that this year changes that with nominations for box office smashes like "Top Gun:Maverick" esp in the Best Picture category.

But one other factor is that of late, the Oscars have certainly become memorable, but unfortunately for the Academy, for all the wrong reasons. Whether it be the wrong film named as Best Picture, or Presenters being physically attacked, the biggest talking point is anything other than what did win Best Picture.

At one point, it looked like the 95th Oscars was going to be one of those boring shows where you could safely predict who was going to win what. But after the Awards that have been handed out so far, and with some interesting curve balls, many of the Oscars could go in any number of different directions. And with the Best Picture list, and how the Academy score said category, it is not impossible for a crowd pleasing film like either "Elvis" or "Top Gun:Maverick" to walk away with that Award.

So, as usual I will be providing my list of the main categories, and I shall be listing what I think will win and what I would like to see win, and also some comments on the nominations

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

There are some excellent contenders in this category from the always excellent Brendan Gleeson in "The Banshees of Inisherin" to newcomers like Barry Keoghan, who likewise is excellent in the same film. Some home love saw him win the BAFTA, but I think we all know which way this Award is heading. I may not be a fan of the film, but I like so many of certain age, I grew up watching the brilliant performances of Ke Huy Quan, and given his backstory and how Hollywood turned its back on him, and he left acting for many years, it really would be a wonderful moment to see Ke top his Awards haul by bagging the Oscar.

WHAT WILL WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 BEST PERFORMANCE BY ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

As above, again there are some strong performances in this category, and any given year they would be a strong contender. But for me this is a two horse race. I do have misgivings about the nomination for Angela Bassett. Yes she does bring gravitas to her role in "Black Panther Wakanda Forever", in what is a pretty bland film, and is a highpoint of the movie, but Oscar worthy??? Some feel it is as much a career win for her body of work, as much as for the film. But then if that is the case, then surely Jamie Lee Curtis should win hands down. Again though not a fan of the film, she is quite brilliant as the tax inspector from hell. And likewise she has been in the industry for almost 50 years, so if we are awarding longevity.....

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Angela Bassett (Black Panther  Wakanda Forever)
 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

 

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Quite a mixed bag here. We can pretty much rule out "Tar" and "Triangle of Sadness" (over-rated) from this category. I would love to see Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner win for "The Fabelmans" as of the remaining three films, it is the one I enjoyed the most. But its between the Daniels and Academy favourite Martin McDonagh. I think there is every chance that the Daniels will win another category, so this will be a good opportunity to reward McDonagh, especially when he lost out for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri".

                                                               

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Martin McDonagh (The Banshees Of Inisherin)

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner (The Fabelmans)

 

 

                                                                                             

 

 

 

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

I do not think this is a particularly strong for Screenplay adaptations. No disrespect but if "Top Gun: Maverick" is nominated, then clearly there is something lacking.  

Given some of the other nominees, there can only be one winner and it is an easy one to call...

WHAT WILL WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell (All Quiet on The Western Front)

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Prior to last weekends SAG Awards, you could have pretty much said that it was a given that Cate Blanchett would be walking home with her third Oscar. But has Michelle Yeoh thrown a spanner in the works?? I only hope that all the ballots are in, because her Instagram comments could end up costing her if not.  

Personally I do not think that Blanchett deserves the Oscar, it is a great performance in an average film, but for me just to name one other nominee, Ana de Amas is much better in "Blonde". I am a huge admirer of Michelle Yeoh, and would be delighted to see her win the Oscar. This is a tough one to call.

 

 

 WHAT WILL WIN - Cate Blanchett (Tár)

 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

 

 

 

 

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

I question most strongly some of the performances in this category. Was there a lack of outstanding leading male performances this year? One in particular, having recently seen the film, any reasonable actor could have played the part as well, there is virtually nothing within the performance that makes it stand out, and definitely not Oscar worthy. I know a few have championed Colin Farrell, in what is a reasonably good performance, but ultimately it's between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Both really do excel in their respectibe roles, and I would be delighted to see either win. But like with Ke Huy Quan, Hollywood loves a comeback story, and hopefully it will be enough to push Fraser to victory. Like many have said, the film as a whole is not the best, where as I loved "Elvis" but Fraser has that emotional range more so than Butler. As I have mentioned before, Fraser has done outstanding work in the past in great movies like "School Ties", "With Honors" and of course "Gods & Monsters", so his time is due.

WHAT WILL WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

BEST DIRECTOR

Like so many of this years categories, for me this is a two horse race, between the up and coming Daniels, and the old guard of Steven Spielberg. Much has been made that there are no female nominations this year, especially when there were so many to choose from. Personally I think it is crazy to nominate Ruben Östlund and Todd Field. I feel that neither deserved their nominations. One man who did deserve to be in this category was Edward Berger for his amazing work on the WWI epic "All Quiet On The Western Front".

But back to those who are nominated. One trend is to split Best Picture and Best Director, though onme would imagine that they go hand in hand, but for some reason this logic eludes the Academy. Because of the imaginitive style and scale of their film, I think the Award will go to EEAAO

 

 

 

WHAT WILL WIN - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN - Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

BEST PICTURE

Since the Academy changed the number of films nominated in this category to a maximum of 10 it has created a situation where a left field film could easily win the top award. With a possible 10 nominees, like this year, it really splits the field, and with the way the scores are tabulated, anything is possible. 

For me you can rule out four of the nominated films straight away - they being "Tár", "Avatar: The Way of Water", "Triangle of Sadness" and "Women Talking".

All ten films are given a score, so whilst there is a lot of love for "Everything Everywhere All At Once", that may only score 10's from a die hard section of the Academy, and elsewhere scoring medium to low scores. Where as something like "All Quiet on The Western Front" or "The Fabelmans" or even "Top Gun: Maverick" might score consistent 7's and 8's from across the board. So this really is a tough one to call.

I am going to make an exception, and offer three nominees in this category....

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN (PURELY FOR FINANCIAL GAIN)

 

Yes I have had my obligatory bets on this years Oscars, and purely for profit I would be delighted to see this win Best Picture. 

Plus it would be the first film in Oscar history to win the same award twice, as "All Quiet On The Western Front" won Best Picture back in 1930

 

 

 

WHAT I WANT TO SEE WIN

 

 

 

If a win is based on entertainment, then the film that I enjoyed the most would have to be Baz Luhrmann's "Elvis".  It brilliantly told the story of The King, with a great central performance from Austin Butler. 

I know that it will not happen, but I would be equally delighted if  "Top Gun: Maverick" took home the top prize. It was a great romp and good fun was had by all. 

If we are talking social message, then as above I would be pleased to see "All Quiet on The Western Front" win, though given it will win Best Foreign Language Film, I doubt it will do a "Parasite" and win both.

 

 

WHAT I THINK WILL WIN

I know that this will be an unpopular choice, but then again so were my predictions for Sir Anthony Hopkins to beat Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category a few years ago, but I was proved right.

I just think that the old guard of the Academy, of which there are still high numbers will not vote for EEAAO in high numbers, so I am going to take a punt and go for the Spielberg film to take home the top prize.

So there you have it, signed, sealed and delivered. Delighted to see that Jimmy Kimmel is back as host. The list of presenters does not inspire but I am sure it will be a great show, and hopefully tomorrow we will all be talking about Who and What won, and not about some incident that occured during the show.

Happy 95th Oscars

"The Whale" (Preview Screening)

 

Like "Empire of Light", the trailer for this film had me hooked, and moved me every time I saw it. 

We are introduced to Charlie, an obese online teacher, who is spending his last few days on this mortal coil, and in those last few days he seeks to reconnect with his Daughter, who he has been estranged from since leaving both her and her Mother for one of his male Students some years earlier.

Given his size, he is housebound, and struggles to most everyday tasks for himself. He does have a Carer, who visits him daily, and she is the Sister of his former male Partner. She is doing her best to keep him alive, but clearly Charlie has a plan.

Ellie is  a very troubled teen, in fact that is beinbg polite. I would almost describe her as loathsome, and if I were Charlie, I would want to keep as far away from her a possible, but being the kind hearted soul that he is, he sees the good in everyone and everything. 

Also coming into the mix is Latter day Saint Thomas, who is trying to convey that a better World is going to be forthcoming, etc etc. Quite frankly I am not sure of what purpose his character serves, although well played by Ty Simpkins. Sadie Sink is equally as good as his repugnant Daughter.

The relationship between Charlie and his Carer Liz is well done, with great work from both Fraser and Hong Chau. You can clearly see the love between, and the love that she knows he still has for his former Partner and her Brother. I had expected to be an emotional wreck by the end of the film, and I wasn't. I would say it is a very good film, but not truly exceptional. But what is at the heart of the film is a phenomenal performance from Brendan Fraser as Charlie. People talk about this resurgence in his career, and that it is a once in a lifetime performance. But he has always had this level of performance in him. Go and check some of his earlier great work on films like "School Ties", "With Honors" and of course his role as the love interest of Sir Ian McKellen in "Gods And Monsters". 

The performance is truly amazing, as is the make-up used to bring Charlie and his obsesity to life. There is much talk of an Oscar, and yes I would be delighted to see him win. Whether he will do so is another matter, we shall see next month......8 out of 10

"M3gan"

 

Here we have the latest thriller from the Blumhouse team. A young girl is orphaned, and goes to live with her Aunt, who is a robotics genius. Struggling to cope with her grief, the Aunt creates a new play friend for her Niece, a piece of AI robotic wizardry, and called Megan. 

Given that her primary keeper is Cady (the Niece), Megan will do all it must to look after her, and more importantly to protect her. You can clearly see where this is going.

From the Neighbours dog, to a local bully, all become the target of Megan, as she engages on a psychotic journey from teacher and saviour to your worst nightmare. 

The plot is wafer thin, incredibly predictable, and with very little tension. And when all looks lost for Aunt and Niece, their rescuer is all too obvious. The Android itself looks and is rather creepy, but should have been used more effectively.

Despite my low praise, I clearly know very little, as the film has been a hit and a sequel has already been given the green light. Dull and predictable...............4 out of 10

"Empire of Light"

 

To say that I had been looking forward to this film for some time would be an understatement. From the first time I saw the trailer on the big screen, I was hooked, and could not wait. Thanks to those lovely people at Cineworld, there was a preview screening.

The film is Directed by Sam Mendes, the Award winning Director of such greats as "Skyfall" and "1917", and as in both those cases, this latest film is shot by Oscar winner Roger Deakins. It is a multi stranded story, dealing with mental illness, racism, a beautiful love story, and the wonder of Cinema. Set at the start of the 1980's we are in Margate, at a local Cinema, where the day to day showing of the latest films takes place. The love story between Hilary (Olivia Colman) and Stephen (Micheal Ward) is beautifully told, and her fall back into depression and dealing with her mental illness is so real and brilliantly done. We also see Stephen having to endure racist abuse. It is a powerful film, very well shot by Deakins. There is a wonderfully understated score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.       

Given the majority of the films location, there is an undeniable love to the Cinema, the big screen experience, and it is at the highpoint when projectionist Norman (Toby Jones) illuminates Stephen as to how the moving image is put on to the big screen. 

There has been much said of Cate Blanchett's performance in "Tár", and that she is nailed on to win the Best Lead Actress Oscar this year. Yes I have seen that performance, and whilst very good, it does not come close to the brilliance of Olivia Colman. The fact that she is not even nominated is a great crime. 

I have seen the film twice, so far. It has a compelling story, great performances, and if you love Cinema and the Big Screen, then there is no better film to see. 2023 gets off to the very best start....10 out of 10